25628 Wheat Seed Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$309,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,162 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 8,058 sqft lot $143/sqft · 6% below area Est $331k · 6% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing The Simone, a brand-new two-story floorplan designed with your family in mind! This thoughtfully crafted home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a game room, and a 2-car garage. The open kitchen, complete with a center island and cozy breakfast area, flows seamlessly into the spacious family room, filled with natural light. The primary bedroom, located on the main floor, offers a peaceful retreat and opens to the ensuite bathroom through elegant French doors. Inside, youâ??ll find dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. A conveniently located utility room and half bath complete the first floor. Upstairs, a versatile game room provides the perfect space for fun and relaxation. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom with a dual vanity ensure everyone has their own space. With its open layout and room for the whole family, The Simone is ready to welcome you home to Briarwood! * Photos representative of floorplan only.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Utility room
• Storage closet

Tags

• GAME ROOM
• UTILITY ROOM
• POWDER ROOM
• STORAGE CLOSET
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,246 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,220
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -6.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $148,278
• Equity at exit: $279,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $453,443
• Equity at exit: $602,242

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,110/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,565

Max offer price $252,375

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-238	+0% $-326	+5% $-414	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-411	+0% $-326	+5% $-241	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-170	-0.5pp $-247	base $-326	+0.5pp $-406	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.19mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	45d	1	0.19mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.38mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	6d	1	0.47mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	0d	1	0.55mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.55mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.55mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	0.56mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.58mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.58mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.59mi
18408 Cloudmore Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,150	$0.89	0d	1	0.62mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	45d	1	0.63mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.66mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.67mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	4d	1	0.68mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	25d	1	0.68mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	0.68mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.73mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	45d	1	0.74mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	25d	1	0.74mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.76mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.78mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	5d	1	0.81mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.82mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	0.84mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	0.84mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	22d	1	0.86mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	0.89mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.92mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.96mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	5d	1	0.98mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	0.98mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	0.99mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	1.12mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	1.20mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	1.23mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	1.23mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.37mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $309,990 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $309,990 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $309,990 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   listed $319,995 Active 975-char remark

   Show marketing remark (975 chars)

   Introducing The Simone, a brand-new two-story floorplan designed with your family in mind! This thoughtfully crafted home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a game room, and a 2-car garage. The open kitchen, complete with a center island and cozy breakfast area, flows seamlessly into the spacious family room, filled with natural light. The primary bedroom, located on the main floor, offers a peaceful retreat and opens to the ensuite bathroom through elegant French doors. Inside, youâ??ll find dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. A conveniently located utility room and half bath complete the first floor. Upstairs, a versatile game room provides the perfect space for fun and relaxation. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom with a dual vanity ensure everyone has their own space. With its open layout and room for the whole family, The Simone is ready to welcome you home to Briarwood! * Photos representative of floorplan only.

5. 2026-03-30
   listed $319,995 Active 1189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

   New Construction | 2-Story | 2,162 Sq Ft | 4 Beds | 2.5 Baths | Game Room | Available Summer 2026 | The Simone offers a functional two-story layout designed for comfort and everyday living. The foyer leads to a utility room, powder room, and storage closet, keeping daily essentials organized and within reach. On the opposite side, you’ll find convenient access to the 2-car garage. Beyond the foyer, the home opens into a bright and inviting kitchen with a center island and breakfast dining area that flows into the spacious family room, filled with natural light. This open layout creates an easy connection between cooking, dining, and relaxing. The primary bedroom is located on the main floor and features an ensuite bath with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet, offering a private retreat. Upstairs, a spacious game room provides additional living space, along with three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom with dual vanities, creating a comfortable setup for shared living. With its thoughtful layout and flexible spaces, the Simone offers a balance of functionality and everyday comfort. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,110 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,673 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,563/yr (+$297/mo · 168.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$2,110
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$9,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $319,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Listed $319,995 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+190.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,110 · +100.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.