2809 S Outer Dr · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1957 0.40 ac lot Est $163k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OPEN HOUSE Saturday, May 30th 12:00 – 2:00 PM. Spacious and bright 3BR (4th & 5th in basement) and 2.5 Bath ranch with 1432 SF upstairs and a partially finished basement. This home is on a corner lot with a convenient circle drive where you can enter off Outer Dr or Gregory St. Office area right off the living room and there’s a convenient first floor laundry. The large fenced in area behind the house is great for your kids and pets! There are two separate rooms in the basement that can be used as bedrooms, along with a full bath, kitchen, bar and huge rec room. Updates 2025: New dishwasher, new chain link fence around the backyard, new garbage disposal, new facia with soffits and recessed lighting and reinforced beams in the attic. Other recent updates include the following: first-floor bath, half bath in addition to new vinyl plank through the kitchen, living room and hallways. New A/C in 2021, New water heater 2019, New roof and back porch in 2006. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory Street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

Key facts

• Fenced in area
• Circle drive
• First floor laundry

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• FENCED IN AREA
• OFFICE AREA
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• SEPARATE ROOMS IN BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Fenced yard; Corner lot; Paved, public-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Steam heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet; Wet bar; Basement with interior entry and finished space; Wood-burning fireplace in living room and basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($819/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 11.9% in Buena Vista — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Middle School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #479 of 493 statewide, top 97%, 397 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saginaw School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $146,838 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1932 S Outer Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,492 (-8%)	6mo	$150,000	$60	52
2355 Brunkow Ct	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	3,055 (+12%)	20mo	$105,000	$34	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,046
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,546
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,221/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $118	+0% $68	+5% $19	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $10	+0% $68	+5% $126	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $113	base $68	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   price $174,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    remarks 695-char remark
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-05-29
    listed $179,900 Active 1233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1233 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE Saturday, May 30th 12:00 – 2:00 PM. Spacious and bright 3BR (4th & 5th in basement) and 2.5 Bath ranch with 1432 SF upstairs and a partially finished basement. This home is on a corner lot with a convenient circle drive where you can enter off Outer Dr or Gregory St. Office area right off the living room and there’s a convenient first floor laundry. The large fenced in area behind the house is great for your kids and pets! There are two separate rooms in the basement that can be used as bedrooms, along with a full bath, kitchen, bar and huge rec room. Updates 2025: New dishwasher, new chain link fence around the backyard, new garbage disposal, new facia with soffits and recessed lighting and reinforced beams in the attic. Other recent updates include the following: first-floor bath, half bath in addition to new vinyl plank through the kitchen, living room and hallways. New A/C in 2021, New water heater 2019, New roof and back porch in 2006. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory Street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

20. 2026-05-29
    listed $179,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1233 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE Saturday, May 30th 12:00 – 2:00 PM. Spacious and bright 3BR (4th & 5th in basement) and 2.5 Bath ranch with 1432 SF upstairs and a partially finished basement. This home is on a corner lot with a convenient circle drive where you can enter off Outer Dr or Gregory St. Office area right off the living room and there’s a convenient first floor laundry. The large fenced in area behind the house is great for your kids and pets! There are two separate rooms in the basement that can be used as bedrooms, along with a full bath, kitchen, bar and huge rec room. Updates 2025: New dishwasher, new chain link fence around the backyard, new garbage disposal, new facia with soffits and recessed lighting and reinforced beams in the attic. Other recent updates include the following: first-floor bath, half bath in addition to new vinyl plank through the kitchen, living room and hallways. New A/C in 2021, New water heater 2019, New roof and back porch in 2006. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory Street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

21. 2025-01-28
    soldstatus $139,900
22. 2025-01-23
    soldstatus $139,000 Closed 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    This 1432 sf, 3BR (4th bedroom in basement), 2.5 Bath home nestled on a double lot is the perfect home with recent upgrades throughout (new first floor bath, half bath, floor coverings through the kitchen, living, hallways, bedrooms, and basement floor coverings + drywall)! A great floor plan (see attached drawings). Additional features include: office located off of the living room, first floor laundry, main floor and an additional "living space" in basement - kitchen, bath, bar, bedroom, fireplace, & a huge 43' x 25' rec area. "U" driveway that allows accesses to the property from both Outer Drive and Gregory St. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

23. 2025-01-23
    soldstatus $139,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    This 1432 sf, 3BR (4th bedroom in basement), 2.5 Bath home nestled on a double lot is the perfect home with recent upgrades throughout (new first floor bath, half bath, floor coverings through the kitchen, living, hallways, bedrooms, and basement floor coverings + drywall)! A great floor plan (see attached drawings). Additional features include: office located off of the living room, first floor laundry, main floor and an additional "living space" in basement - kitchen, bath, bar, bedroom, fireplace, & a huge 43' x 25' rec area. "U" driveway that allows accesses to the property from both Outer Drive and Gregory St. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

24. 2025-01-13
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    This 1432 sf, 3BR (4th bedroom in basement), 2.5 Bath home nestled on a double lot is the perfect home with recent upgrades throughout (new first floor bath, half bath, floor coverings through the kitchen, living, hallways, bedrooms, and basement floor coverings + drywall)! A great floor plan (see attached drawings). Additional features include: office located off of the living room, first floor laundry, main floor and an additional "living space" in basement - kitchen, bath, bar, bedroom, fireplace, & a huge 43' x 25' rec area. "U" driveway that allows accesses to the property from both Outer Drive and Gregory St. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

25. 2025-01-13
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    This 1432 sf, 3BR (4th bedroom in basement), 2.5 Bath home nestled on a double lot is the perfect home with recent upgrades throughout (new first floor bath, half bath, floor coverings through the kitchen, living, hallways, bedrooms, and basement floor coverings + drywall)! A great floor plan (see attached drawings). Additional features include: office located off of the living room, first floor laundry, main floor and an additional "living space" in basement - kitchen, bath, bar, bedroom, fireplace, & a huge 43' x 25' rec area. "U" driveway that allows accesses to the property from both Outer Drive and Gregory St. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

26. 2024-12-31
    price $149,900 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    This 1432 sf, 3BR (4th bedroom in basement), 2.5 Bath home nestled on a double lot is the perfect home with recent upgrades throughout (new first floor bath, half bath, floor coverings through the kitchen, living, hallways, bedrooms, and basement floor coverings + drywall)! A great floor plan (see attached drawings). Additional features include: office located off of the living room, first floor laundry, main floor and an additional "living space" in basement - kitchen, bath, bar, bedroom, fireplace, & a huge 43' x 25' rec area. "U" driveway that allows accesses to the property from both Outer Drive and Gregory St. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

27. 2024-12-30
    price $149,900
28. 2024-12-10
    listed $159,900 Active 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    This 1432 sf, 3BR (4th bedroom in basement), 2.5 Bath home nestled on a double lot is the perfect home with recent upgrades throughout (new first floor bath, half bath, floor coverings through the kitchen, living, hallways, bedrooms, and basement floor coverings + drywall)! A great floor plan (see attached drawings). Additional features include: office located off of the living room, first floor laundry, main floor and an additional "living space" in basement - kitchen, bath, bar, bedroom, fireplace, & a huge 43' x 25' rec area. "U" driveway that allows accesses to the property from both Outer Drive and Gregory St. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

29. 2024-12-10
    listed $159,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    This 1432 sf, 3BR (4th bedroom in basement), 2.5 Bath home nestled on a double lot is the perfect home with recent upgrades throughout (new first floor bath, half bath, floor coverings through the kitchen, living, hallways, bedrooms, and basement floor coverings + drywall)! A great floor plan (see attached drawings). Additional features include: office located off of the living room, first floor laundry, main floor and an additional "living space" in basement - kitchen, bath, bar, bedroom, fireplace, & a huge 43' x 25' rec area. "U" driveway that allows accesses to the property from both Outer Drive and Gregory St. The sale price also includes the additional lot (80 x 108 feet of frontage on Gregory street) west of the property. Sale price includes the following parcels: Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1508-000 (home) Tax ID: 10-12-5-32-1507-000 (vacant land west of home)

30. 2024-08-19
    historical
31. 2024-08-19
    historical
32. 2024-06-17
    listed $112,000 Active
33. 2024-06-17
    listed $112,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,957 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$736/yr (+$61/mo · 60.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,221
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$523
• After-tax cash flow: $1,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+60.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Listed $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2025-01-23 Sold (MLS) $139,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-23 Sold (MLS) $139,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-13 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-13 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-12-10 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-12-10 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-17 Listed $112,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-17 Listed $112,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,221 · -54.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.