171 Dartmouth Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 296 Days on market

Built 1989 4,739 sqft lot $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own YOUR OWN LAND and this Adorable 2 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath mobile home in a 55+, Sweetwater Community. Shed with Window unit located in rear of home. Completely re-plumbed in 2025. New Metal Roof and AC replaced in 2024. Laundry room is inside kitchen. Community offers Clubhouse, 18 hole Golf Course, Pool and Hot Tub, Tennis and Pickle Ball Courts, Shuffleboard , Fitness Room, Boat Ramp access to Lake Henry, boat slips available. All room sizes are approximate.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Ac replaced
• Includes golf cart

Tags

• SHED WITH WINDOW UNIT
• NEW SIDING
• COMPLETELY RE-PLUMBED
• NEW METAL ROOF
• AC REPLACED
• INCLUDES GOLF CART

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Board of Directors) — association approval required; Monthly HOA $31.50 (annually $378); Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, golf course, pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard; golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water source; Private sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Boat slips available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide (manufactured)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Rain gutters; Shed(s); Private water access to Lake Henry; Private boat ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Open living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Skylight(s); Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,131
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-176
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,160/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,556

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $358	+0% $307	+5% $256	+10% $205
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $230	+0% $307	+5% $384	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $352	base $307	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.53mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.04mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.32mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 289 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $179,900 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-04-29
    price $179,900
14. 2026-02-18
    price $185,000
15. 2025-08-25
    listed $195,000 Active
16. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $165,000
17. 2010-07-06
    historical
18. 2010-02-01
    listed $114,000
19. 2009-04-30
    listed $112,000
20. 2008-03-27
    soldstatus $78,500
21. 2008-02-25
    soldstatus $78,500
22. 2008-01-05
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,160 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,160 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,160
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$206
• After-tax cash flow: $3,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+111.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-01 Listed $114,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-30 Listed $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-27 Sold (MLS) $78,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2008-01-05 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,160 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.