29 Key Largo Dr · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $42k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to Easy Living! Nestled on a wonderful, easily accessible corner lot, this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom manufactured home is beautifully refreshed and completely ready for its next owner. From the moment you step inside, you will love the warm, inviting atmosphere and efficient layout, making it the perfect fit for anyone looking for comfort and affordability. Step outside to your own private oasis! The backyard features beautifully established garden plants, complete with a lovely stepping stone path that provides easy and picturesque access to your outdoor retreat. Enjoy a prime location right inside the community that balances quiet residential living with everyday accessi

Key facts

• Stepping stone path
• Private oasis
• Prime location

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE OASIS
• ESTABLISHED GARDEN PLANTS
• STEPPING STONE PATH
• PRIME LOCATION
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership interest: Ground rent
• Financial info: Ground rent $582 per month; Improvement assessed value per assessor; Annual ground rent listed under income/expense
• HOA & community: Property manager present; Located in Leiby's MHP (mobile home park)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling; Propane hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (main level living)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shed on property; Manufactured home make: HAUSER; Above-grade finished living space per assessor
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent exists (monthly payment)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Heating fuel: Natural gas and leased propane; Hot water: Propane
• Interior features: No basement; Living area per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.0% vs local median 2.8% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cumberland Valley SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 138.10%
• DSCR: 7.14
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,294
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Malibu Blvd	0.12mi	2/1.0	750 (+1%)	2mo	$32,500	$43	91
40 Key Largo Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	732 (-1%)	12mo	$42,000	$57	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $66,171
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.32×
• Total profit: $150,153
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $194/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $271

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,148	-5% $1,138	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,118	+10% $1,108
Rent	-10% $994	-5% $1,061	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,195	+10% $1,262
Rate	-1.0pp $1,145	-0.5pp $1,137	base $1,128	+0.5pp $1,119	+1.0pp $1,110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $35,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $35,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $194 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $374 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 92.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$194
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $13,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,307
• After-tax cash flow: $10,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $194 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.