16982 W Hammon · Conroe, TX 77316

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2024 6,298 sqft lot $101/sqft · 38% below area Est $179k · 12% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home! New construction with modern elegance and convenience. Great single story home is located in Montgomery and close to Lake Conroe. This open concept design combines style and functionality. In this chef inspiring kitchen you will find a beautiful waterfall island, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining. The bathroom design reflects modern aesthetic features and space saving elements for added convenience. Great location, close to shopping and dining. For those that love to fish, fishing is also close! Come take a look!

Key facts

• New construction
• Great location
• Open concept design

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• WATERFALL ISLAND
• MODERN AESTHETIC FEATURES
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,520 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.93%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,681
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -11.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16907 W Ivanhoe	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	1mo	$109,900	$75	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,906
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $23,538
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,197/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	44d	1	0.07mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	44d	1	0.09mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.14mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.14mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	0.48mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	44d	1	0.78mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	0.83mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	0.92mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.05mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	1.06mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	44d	1	1.07mi
62 April Point Dr S Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.5	2153	$1,850	$0.86	24d	1	1.14mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	1.23mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $158,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $158,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Welcome to your new home! New construction with modern elegance and convenience. Great single story home is located in Montgomery and close to Lake Conroe. This open concept design combines style and functionality. In this chef inspiring kitchen you will find a beautiful waterfall island, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining. The bathroom design reflects modern aesthetic features and space saving elements for added convenience. Great location, close to shopping and dining. For those that love to fish, fishing is also close! Come take a look!

16. 2026-03-19
    historical
17. 2026-02-11
    status Active
18. 2026-02-01
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-29
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-06
    price $159,900
21. 2025-10-13
    historical
22. 2025-10-13
    listed $164,500 Active
23. 2025-09-03
    price $164,500
24. 2025-07-27
    listed $169,000 Active
25. 2025-07-27
    historical
26. 2025-03-01
    listed $175,000 Active
27. 2024-10-27
    historical
28. 2024-06-19
    listed $185,000 Active
29. 2024-06-19
    historical
30. 2024-02-27
    listed $185,000 Active
31. 2023-06-06
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2023-05-21
    status Pending
33. 2023-05-15
    status Option Pending
34. 2023-05-01
    price $115,000
35. 2023-04-19
    listed $135,000 Active
36. 2020-03-19
    soldstatus
37. 2020-03-18
    soldstatus
38. 2014-02-28
    soldstatus Sold
39. 2014-02-24
    status Pending
40. 2013-05-24
    listed $20,000 Active
41. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,197
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $3,891
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$934
• After-tax cash flow: $5,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+690.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $158,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $164,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $164,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-19 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-24 Listed $20,000 HARMLS
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,197 · -19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.