100 4th St · Lake City, TX 78368

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $121k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ABSOUTLEY LOOKING FOR CASH BUYERS WITH PROOF OF FUNDS. NO WHOLESALERS UNLESS YOU HAVE AN ACTUAL BUYER Price: $65,000 Bedrooms: 3 Bathrooms: 2 Square Footage: 1680 Year Built: 1960 Type: Duplex Property Description Investment Opportunity: Assignment of Contract – 2-Story Duplex on Large Lot Property Type: 2-Story Duplex Location: 100 4th St. Lake City, Tx. 78368 Lot Size: Approximately 0.75 Acres (¾ Acre) Layout: Downstairs Unit: 1 Bed / 1 Bath / Upstairs Unit: 2 Bed / 1 Bath Key Property Features: Duplex sits on a spacious ¾-acre lot – great potential for rental income or owner-occupant plus rental strategy.

Key facts

• Large lot
• 2 story duplex
• Built 1960

Tags

• 2 STORY DUPLEX
• LARGE LOT
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,180 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.33%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Lake St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (+8%)	13mo	$130,000	$72	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $49,841
• Equity at exit: $34,447

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.59×
• Total profit: $119,956
• Equity at exit: $57,564

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,067/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2025-08-19
    listed $65,000 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    ABSOUTLEY LOOKING FOR CASH BUYERS WITH PROOF OF FUNDS. NO WHOLESALERS UNLESS YOU HAVE AN ACTUAL BUYER Price: $65,000 Bedrooms: 3 Bathrooms: 2 Square Footage: 1680 Year Built: 1960 Type: Duplex Property Description Investment Opportunity: Assignment of Contract – 2-Story Duplex on Large Lot Property Type: 2-Story Duplex Location: 100 4th St. Lake City, Tx. 78368 Lot Size: Approximately 0.75 Acres (¾ Acre) Layout: Downstairs Unit: 1 Bed / 1 Bath / Upstairs Unit: 2 Bed / 1 Bath Key Property Features: Duplex sits on a spacious ¾-acre lot – great potential for rental income or owner-occupant plus rental strategy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,067
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $5,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1180
• US rank: #20606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-19 Listed $65,000 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,067 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.