16236 Paula St · Prairieville, LA 70769

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,462 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1979 1.04 ac lot $171/sqft · at area comps Est $247k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPURTUNITY!! Wonderful 3 Bedroom 2 Bath home with Studio Style SEPERATE APARTMENT featuring Full Kitchen, Open Living Area and Private Bath. All on over an 1 ACRE LOT in quaint Stafford Heights Subdivision! NEWER vinyl windows. Large Living Room with beautiful WOOD FLOORS and fireplace. Awaiting your personal touches!

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Newer vinyl windows
• Wood floors

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE BATH
• 1 ACRE LOT
• NEWER VINYL WINDOWS
• WOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (detached); Single-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot in Stafford Heights subdivision; Lot dimensions approximately 200 x 229 (about 1.04 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prairieville Primary School (math 59% / reading 69%, grade B, #45 of 646 statewide, top 7%, 845 students, 38% FRL); Prairieville Middle School (math 68% / reading 74%, grade A, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 770 students, 34% FRL); Dutchtown High School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade B, #9 of 265 statewide, top 3%, 2,643 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ascension Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,468 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,161
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 1.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16236 Paula St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,462 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$171	99
41069 Rustling Oak Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-6%)	3mo	$210,000	$154	69
41033 Galvez Trails Blvd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+11%)	1mo	$359,900	$222	68
41025 Galvez Trails Blvd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	5mo	$315,000	$194	66
16297 Beech St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+8%)	10mo	$249,900	$158	60
40502 Mary Ann St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-4%)	1mo	$234,900	$167	59
41109 Garden Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+3%)	10mo	$264,990	$177	54
16199 N Galvez Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,293 (-12%)	5mo	$249,900	$193	52
40205 Maddie Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+11%)	1mo	$305,000	$187	51
15519 Sheree St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+12%)	5mo	$239,000	$145	45
40215 Maddie Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,659 (+14%)	6mo	$315,000	$190	44
40314 Parker Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+13%)	10mo	$280,000	$170	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,433
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,190
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70769

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,413/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,940

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $106	+0% $35	+5% $-36	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-43	+0% $35	+5% $113	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $99	base $35	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40514 1513 Prairieville, LA	2.0	2.0	980	$900	$0.92	45d	1	0.84mi
17160 Parker Heights Dr Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,100	$1.65	45d	1	0.87mi
41437 Cozy Way Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,300	$1.26	25d	1	1.18mi
40300 Creek Bend Dr Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,000	$1.45	16d	1	1.23mi
38294 1494 Unit 7 Prairieville, LA	2.0	2.5	1447	$1,055	$0.73	45d	1	1.32mi
17414 Berkshire Dr Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	25d	1	1.40mi
17455 Berkshire Dr Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,850	$1.45	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   GREAT OPPURTUNITY!! Wonderful 3 Bedroom 2 Bath home with Studio Style SEPERATE APARTMENT featuring Full Kitchen, Open Living Area and Private Bath. All on over an 1 ACRE LOT in quaint Stafford Heights Subdivision! NEWER vinyl windows. Large Living Room with beautiful WOOD FLOORS and fireplace. Awaiting your personal touches!

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   GREAT OPPURTUNITY!! Wonderful 3 Bedroom 2 Bath home with Studio Style SEPERATE APARTMENT featuring Full Kitchen, Open Living Area and Private Bath. All on over an 1 ACRE LOT in quaint Stafford Heights Subdivision! NEWER vinyl windows. Large Living Room with beautiful WOOD FLOORS and fireplace. Awaiting your personal touches!

3. 2026-05-01
   listed $250,000 Active 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   GREAT OPPURTUNITY!! Wonderful 3 Bedroom 2 Bath home with Studio Style SEPERATE APARTMENT featuring Full Kitchen, Open Living Area and Private Bath. All on over an 1 ACRE LOT in quaint Stafford Heights Subdivision! NEWER vinyl windows. Large Living Room with beautiful WOOD FLOORS and fireplace. Awaiting your personal touches!

4. 2026-05-01
   listed $250,000 Active 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   GREAT OPPURTUNITY!! Wonderful 3 Bedroom 2 Bath home with Studio Style SEPERATE APARTMENT featuring Full Kitchen, Open Living Area and Private Bath. All on over an 1 ACRE LOT in quaint Stafford Heights Subdivision! NEWER vinyl windows. Large Living Room with beautiful WOOD FLOORS and fireplace. Awaiting your personal touches!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,413 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,413 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,413
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $1,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairieville, LA
• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,278
• Household income: $109,404
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.56%
• Current HPI: 144.2267
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,413 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.