213 Millet Cir · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2014 8,319 sqft lot $128/sqft · at area comps Est $307k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great floor plan and an inviting open living concept perfect for everyday living and entertaining. From the tiled foyer, you step into a spacious great room highlighted by beautiful stained concrete flooring, a soaring cathedral ceiling with a decorative beam, and a sliding glass door that opens to the backyard. The large eat-in kitchen features tile flooring, a center island, granite countertops, a pantry, and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and functionality. The split-bedroom floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite, which includes a generous bedroom with stained concrete flooring. The ensuite bath offers tile flooring, double vanities, his-and-her walk-in closets, a relaxing garden tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms are nicely sized with ample closet space, while the secondary full bath includes a single vanity and a tub/shower combination. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and provides access to the two-car garage. Outside, the privacy-fenced backyard features an open patio—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying your own private space.

Key facts

• Open living concept
• Sliding glass door
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN LIVING CONCEPT
• STAINED CONCRETE FLOORING
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-879/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $300k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,001 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,648
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -2.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Man O War Cir	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,296 (-2%)	7mo	$375,000	$163	71
868 Copper Ridge Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,139 (-9%)	11mo	$315,000	$147	62
249 Camellia Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,117 (-10%)	4mo	$335,000	$158	60
2530 Sandicrest Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,402 (+2%)	6mo	$385,000	$160	56
1298 Fernando Cir	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,211 (-6%)	12mo	$351,500	$159	46
2312 Brightview Pl	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,079 (-11%)	18mo	$285,000	$137	35
2443 Brookwood Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-14%)	8mo	$265,700	$132	31
3294 Creekwood Dr	0.67mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,641 (+13%)	24mo	$540,000	$204	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,346
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,797
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $286,955

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $310,000 1196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1196 chars)

   This well-designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great floor plan and an inviting open living concept perfect for everyday living and entertaining. From the tiled foyer, you step into a spacious great room highlighted by beautiful stained concrete flooring, a soaring cathedral ceiling with a decorative beam, and a sliding glass door that opens to the backyard. The large eat-in kitchen features tile flooring, a center island, granite countertops, a pantry, and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and functionality. The split-bedroom floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite, which includes a generous bedroom with stained concrete flooring. The ensuite bath offers tile flooring, double vanities, his-and-her walk-in closets, a relaxing garden tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms are nicely sized with ample closet space, while the secondary full bath includes a single vanity and a tub/shower combination. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and provides access to the two-car garage. Outside, the privacy-fenced backyard features an open patio—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying your own private space.

2. 2026-05-12
   price $315,000 1196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1196 chars)

   This well-designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great floor plan and an inviting open living concept perfect for everyday living and entertaining. From the tiled foyer, you step into a spacious great room highlighted by beautiful stained concrete flooring, a soaring cathedral ceiling with a decorative beam, and a sliding glass door that opens to the backyard. The large eat-in kitchen features tile flooring, a center island, granite countertops, a pantry, and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and functionality. The split-bedroom floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite, which includes a generous bedroom with stained concrete flooring. The ensuite bath offers tile flooring, double vanities, his-and-her walk-in closets, a relaxing garden tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms are nicely sized with ample closet space, while the secondary full bath includes a single vanity and a tub/shower combination. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and provides access to the two-car garage. Outside, the privacy-fenced backyard features an open patio—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying your own private space.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $320,000 1196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1196 chars)

   This well-designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great floor plan and an inviting open living concept perfect for everyday living and entertaining. From the tiled foyer, you step into a spacious great room highlighted by beautiful stained concrete flooring, a soaring cathedral ceiling with a decorative beam, and a sliding glass door that opens to the backyard. The large eat-in kitchen features tile flooring, a center island, granite countertops, a pantry, and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and functionality. The split-bedroom floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite, which includes a generous bedroom with stained concrete flooring. The ensuite bath offers tile flooring, double vanities, his-and-her walk-in closets, a relaxing garden tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms are nicely sized with ample closet space, while the secondary full bath includes a single vanity and a tub/shower combination. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and provides access to the two-car garage. Outside, the privacy-fenced backyard features an open patio—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying your own private space.

4. 2026-03-10
   price $325,000 1196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1196 chars)

   This well-designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great floor plan and an inviting open living concept perfect for everyday living and entertaining. From the tiled foyer, you step into a spacious great room highlighted by beautiful stained concrete flooring, a soaring cathedral ceiling with a decorative beam, and a sliding glass door that opens to the backyard. The large eat-in kitchen features tile flooring, a center island, granite countertops, a pantry, and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and functionality. The split-bedroom floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite, which includes a generous bedroom with stained concrete flooring. The ensuite bath offers tile flooring, double vanities, his-and-her walk-in closets, a relaxing garden tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms are nicely sized with ample closet space, while the secondary full bath includes a single vanity and a tub/shower combination. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and provides access to the two-car garage. Outside, the privacy-fenced backyard features an open patio—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying your own private space.

5. 2026-01-16
   listed $335,000 Active 1196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1196 chars)

   This well-designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great floor plan and an inviting open living concept perfect for everyday living and entertaining. From the tiled foyer, you step into a spacious great room highlighted by beautiful stained concrete flooring, a soaring cathedral ceiling with a decorative beam, and a sliding glass door that opens to the backyard. The large eat-in kitchen features tile flooring, a center island, granite countertops, a pantry, and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and functionality. The split-bedroom floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite, which includes a generous bedroom with stained concrete flooring. The ensuite bath offers tile flooring, double vanities, his-and-her walk-in closets, a relaxing garden tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms are nicely sized with ample closet space, while the secondary full bath includes a single vanity and a tub/shower combination. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and provides access to the two-car garage. Outside, the privacy-fenced backyard features an open patio—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply enjoying your own private space.

6. 2014-07-01
   soldstatus $167,070 7-char remark

   Show marketing remark (7 chars)

   Presale

7. 2014-03-03
   listed $167,070 7-char remark

   Show marketing remark (7 chars)

   Presale

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$465/yr (+$39/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,198
• − Management: −$2,198
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,478
• After-tax cash flow: $598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzalez, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+85.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $310,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $315,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $320,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $325,000 PARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $335,000 PARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Sold (MLS) $167,070 PARMLS
• 2014-03-03 Listed $167,070 PARMLS

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,025 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.