1538 Country Ridge Dr · Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * * Highest & Best due Thursday 9/10 by 2:00 pm. Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home (with a bonus room that could easily be converted into a 4th bedroom) located on a quiet cul-de-sac. New Metal roof installed 2015, Kitchen was remodeled in 2016 with Solid wood - soft close Maple cabinets and solid surface countertops. The drain field was replaced in 2012. Property is under Termite warranty ( transferable to the new owner) There is NO HOA!! This home is perfect for small business owners looking to park their vehicles on their own property. There is a covered area to park a motor home complete with electrical hook up; a boat, or 4 wheelers with plenty of room for more. This over sized cul-de-sac lot has a 24x30 detached woodworking shop & garage with 50amp 240 volt wiring. In addition there is even a 10x12 storage shed in the back. This charming home is a split bedroom plan, formal dining room, formal living room and great/family room. Don't forget about the attached 2 car garage. .. Enjoy the warm Florida breeze in the peaceful covered gazebo. No need to landscape, because the owners have done that as well. This unique property is a rare find and move in ready!! Welcome Home!!

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Home design: Single-story residential home
• Exterior features: 0.58-acre lot; Zoned R-3

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Located at the end of a cul-de-sac (from directions)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 38.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 360.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 1263.66%
• DSCR: 57.23
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 64.89×
• Total profit: $89,439
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 132.72×
• Total profit: $184,402
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $1,474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 18%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,478	-5% $1,476	+0% $1,474	+5% $1,473	+10% $1,471
Rent	-10% $1,323	-5% $1,399	+0% $1,474	+5% $1,550	+10% $1,625
Rate	-1.0pp $1,477	-0.5pp $1,476	base $1,474	+0.5pp $1,473	+1.0pp $1,472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2721 Doyle Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,795	$1.39	24d	1	0.25mi
1602 Leslie Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,250	$1.37	11d	1	0.65mi
2400 Timbercreek Loop W Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1108	$1,910	$1.72	24d	1	0.81mi
635 Meridian Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	4d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $5,000 Active
2. 2020-10-28
   soldstatus $230,000
3. 2020-10-21
   soldstatus $230,000 Sold 1250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1250 chars)

   * * * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * * Highest & Best due Thursday 9/10 by 2:00 pm. Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home (with a bonus room that could easily be converted into a 4th bedroom) located on a quiet cul-de-sac. New Metal roof installed 2015, Kitchen was remodeled in 2016 with Solid wood - soft close Maple cabinets and solid surface countertops. The drain field was replaced in 2012. Property is under Termite warranty ( transferable to the new owner) There is NO HOA!! This home is perfect for small business owners looking to park their vehicles on their own property. There is a covered area to park a motor home complete with electrical hook up; a boat, or 4 wheelers with plenty of room for more. This over sized cul-de-sac lot has a 24x30 detached woodworking shop & garage with 50amp 240 volt wiring. In addition there is even a 10x12 storage shed in the back. This charming home is a split bedroom plan, formal dining room, formal living room and great/family room. Don't forget about the attached 2 car garage. .. Enjoy the warm Florida breeze in the peaceful covered gazebo. No need to landscape, because the owners have done that as well. This unique property is a rare find and move in ready!! Welcome Home!!

4. 2020-09-11
   status Pending 1250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1250 chars)

   * * * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * * Highest & Best due Thursday 9/10 by 2:00 pm. Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home (with a bonus room that could easily be converted into a 4th bedroom) located on a quiet cul-de-sac. New Metal roof installed 2015, Kitchen was remodeled in 2016 with Solid wood - soft close Maple cabinets and solid surface countertops. The drain field was replaced in 2012. Property is under Termite warranty ( transferable to the new owner) There is NO HOA!! This home is perfect for small business owners looking to park their vehicles on their own property. There is a covered area to park a motor home complete with electrical hook up; a boat, or 4 wheelers with plenty of room for more. This over sized cul-de-sac lot has a 24x30 detached woodworking shop & garage with 50amp 240 volt wiring. In addition there is even a 10x12 storage shed in the back. This charming home is a split bedroom plan, formal dining room, formal living room and great/family room. Don't forget about the attached 2 car garage. .. Enjoy the warm Florida breeze in the peaceful covered gazebo. No need to landscape, because the owners have done that as well. This unique property is a rare find and move in ready!! Welcome Home!!

5. 2020-09-04
   listed $230,000 Active 1250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1250 chars)

   * * * MULTIPLE OFFERS * * * Highest & Best due Thursday 9/10 by 2:00 pm. Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home (with a bonus room that could easily be converted into a 4th bedroom) located on a quiet cul-de-sac. New Metal roof installed 2015, Kitchen was remodeled in 2016 with Solid wood - soft close Maple cabinets and solid surface countertops. The drain field was replaced in 2012. Property is under Termite warranty ( transferable to the new owner) There is NO HOA!! This home is perfect for small business owners looking to park their vehicles on their own property. There is a covered area to park a motor home complete with electrical hook up; a boat, or 4 wheelers with plenty of room for more. This over sized cul-de-sac lot has a 24x30 detached woodworking shop & garage with 50amp 240 volt wiring. In addition there is even a 10x12 storage shed in the back. This charming home is a split bedroom plan, formal dining room, formal living room and great/family room. Don't forget about the attached 2 car garage. .. Enjoy the warm Florida breeze in the peaceful covered gazebo. No need to landscape, because the owners have done that as well. This unique property is a rare find and move in ready!! Welcome Home!!

6. 2015-10-05
   historical
7. 2015-03-31
   listed $163,000 Active
8. 2015-02-21
   historical
9. 2014-06-14
   status Active
10. 2014-06-10
    historical
11. 2014-02-21
    listed $170,000 Active
12. 1993-04-02
    soldstatus $61,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,834
• − Management: −$1,834
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $18,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,494
• After-tax cash flow: $13,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combee Settlement, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-91.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2020-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-21 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-04 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-31 Listed $163,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-21 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,224 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.