1537 Jefferson Dr · Mount Dora, FL 32757

$189,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1963 6,912 sqft lot Est $271k · 30% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Charming Mount Dora home—priced to sell! Located just minutes from vibrant Downtown Mount Dora, this property blends small-town charm with everyday convenience and great potential. Features include nice kitchen, fenced yard, spacious lot, and ample parking, CBS —perfect for entertaining, pets, or comfortable family living. Enjoy added peace of mind with a newer AC system. Situated in a no-HOA community with access to great schools and convenient proximity to SR-429. An excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or investors alike!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Ample parking
• Spacious lot

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• SPACIOUS LOT
• AMPLE PARKING
• ROOF IN GOOD CONDITION
• NEWER AC SYSTEM
• NO-HOA COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (R-2); Unfurnished; Floor number: 1
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Facing west; Completed condition; Universal property ID assigned
• Construction: Block, brick, concrete and stucco construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built with approximately 0.16-acre lot
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Chain link fence; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 64 x 108

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (single-level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry closet; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($2/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Mount Dora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#244 in FL, #3,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Triangle Elementary School (math 41% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 783 students, 64% FRL); Mt. Dora High School (math 32% / reading 46%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,334 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 639 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,447 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,756
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 E 11th Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (+1)	796 (-4%)	10mo	$260,000	$327	53
625 E Jackson Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (+1)	752 (-9%)	11mo	$160,000	$213	41
2130 Oak Cir	0.59mi	2/1.5 (+1)	898 (+8%)	22mo	$133,500	$149	32
1305 E 9th Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	936 (+13%)	24mo	$380,000	$406	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-34,641
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-45,249
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32757

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,302/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $189,999

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1515 Lincoln Ave Mount Dora, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	599	$1,299	$2.17	23d	2	0.09mi
502 N Simpson St Mount Dora, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,785	$1.61	21d	1	0.70mi
501 N Simpson St Mount Dora, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	23d	1	0.72mi
316 N Simpson St Unit 318 Mt Dora, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,495	$1.47	23d	1	0.80mi
1422 N Tremain St Unit 1422 Mt Dora, FL	2.0	1.5	750	$2,000	$2.67	23d	1	0.82mi
401 E 9th Ave Mount Dora, FL	2.0	1.5	984	$2,800	$2.85	23d	1	0.85mi
155 Veranda Way Mount Dora, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$1,464	$1.86	2d	12	0.91mi
2507 Koji ST Mt Dora, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,783	$1.86	1d	9	0.92mi
1017 E 1st Ave Mt Dora, FL	2.0	1.0	757	$1,750	$2.31	23d	1	0.95mi
31850 Sailor LOOP Mt Dora, FL	2.0	1.0	877	$1,474	$1.68	4d	4	1.07mi
225 E 3rd Ave Mt Dora, FL	2.0	1.5	1066	$1,800	$1.69	23d	1	1.15mi
607 Johns Ave Mt Dora, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,999 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,999 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,999 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   remarks 585-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,999 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,999 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   price $189,999
8. 2026-04-24
   price $197,900
9. 2026-04-04
   price $198,000
10. 2026-03-03
    price $199,000
11. 2026-01-12
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,302
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mount Dora

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #3860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Dora, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 34,121
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,121
• Household income: $77,216
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 998.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.69%
• Current HPI: 293.4759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $189,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $197,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,302 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.