433 Paris St · San Marcos, TX 78656

$213,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 4,878 sqft lot $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks

The Beckman - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 4,878 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-384/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,836 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,869
• Equity at exit: $51,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-27,386
• Equity at exit: $53,759

Cash invested: $59,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$267 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $209,355

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $42	+0% $-32	+5% $-106	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-107	+0% $-32	+5% $43	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $22	base $-32	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,498
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Paris St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	2d	1	0.15mi
205 E Lima Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,999	$1.25	24d	1	0.23mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,780	$1.10	2d	4	0.68mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,160	$1.25	2d	1	0.72mi
283 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,609	$1.12	17d	1	0.87mi
312 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	44d	1	0.90mi
171 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,850	$1.21	5d	1	0.93mi
328 Mica Trl Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	44d	1	0.97mi
566 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,850	$1.01	17d	1	0.98mi
300 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1712	$1,795	$1.05	44d	1	1.00mi
124 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,845	$1.09	5d	1	1.01mi
543 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	22d	1	1.02mi
192 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1610	$1,699	$1.06	44d	1	1.02mi
230 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	18d	1	1.03mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	18d	1	1.04mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	5d	1	1.04mi
147 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,441	$0.99	44d	1	1.04mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	1.04mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,850	$1.09	12d	1	1.05mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,850	$1.09	44d	1	1.06mi
427 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	44d	1	1.10mi
444 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1830	$1,850	$1.01	5d	1	1.12mi
251 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,650	$1.06	18d	1	1.13mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	44d	1	1.16mi
151 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	5d	1	1.16mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	5d	1	1.17mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,900	$1.07	5d	1	1.17mi
211 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,840	$1.03	18d	1	1.18mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	1.20mi
296 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,695	$1.19	12d	1	1.21mi
839 Gully St Maxwell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1105	$1,528	$1.38	2d	306	1.29mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,694	$0.89	2d	15	1.38mi
214 Kyanite Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	1.38mi
1259 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,695	$1.11	18d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $213,990
3. 2026-03-27
   price $214,990
4. 2026-03-23
   price $219,990
5. 2026-03-10
   price $212,990
6. 2026-03-09
   listed $214,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$3,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
• After-tax cash flow: $575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $213,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $214,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $219,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $212,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $214,990 Unlock MLS