6715 Timberhaven Ct · Pecan Plantation, TX 76049

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 195 Days on market

Built 2020 0.39 ac lot $139/sqft · 18% above area Est $144k · 18% over ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come home to beautiful country living! Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home, nestled under majestic shade trees on two expansive lots with .38-acre parcel of land! Located just minutes away from Lake Granbury and DeCordova Bend Park, this home offers 1,140 square feet of open living space. This impeccably maintained home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths with vaulted ceilings & large windows for tons of natural light. Enjoy contemporary updates and a comfortable open living space that is warm and well-lit, a well-appointed kitchen that boasts up-to-date appliances and adjacent breakfast nook. Retreat to the private master bedroom with its own en-suite bathroom. Two additional split bedrooms and bath provide ample space for family & guests. Enjoy peaceful living with no HOA restrictions, ensuring freedom and flexibility. Given its proximity to the lake and park, this property ensures the pleasures of lakeside leisure without sacrificing convenience. Walk to the lake and fish from the dock! Enjoy quick access to HWY 377.

Key facts

• Two expansive lots
• Lake granbury
• Open living space

Tags

• MAJESTIC SHADE TREES
• TWO EXPANSIVE LOTS
• LAKE GRANBURY
• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE MASTER BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.51%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,707
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: 17.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6631 Dayla Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$129,900	$107	91
6724 Timberhaven Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	14mo	$194,500	$160	86
4640 Lyndi Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	3mo	$175,000	$128	67
6628 Ashley Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-11%)	5mo	$119,000	$110	66
6624 Dayla Ct	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	10mo	$100,000	$95	56
4648 Lyndi Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	20mo	$145,000	$136	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,329
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $38,552
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,488/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $344	+0% $296	+5% $248	+10% $200
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $223	+0% $296	+5% $369	+10% $442
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $339	base $296	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6521 Six J Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	25d	1	0.13mi
4938 Blue Water Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,650	$1.62	17d	1	0.29mi
4938 Blue Water Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	44d	1	0.29mi
6505 Christa Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,700	$1.97	44d	1	0.36mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	23d	1	1.17mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	19d	1	1.17mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	25d	1	1.23mi
3612 Mandy Dr Granbury, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	23d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $169,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active Option Contract 174 DOM
15. 2025-12-08
    listed $169,000 Active 1061-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

    Come home to beautiful country living! Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home, nestled under majestic shade trees on two expansive lots with .38-acre parcel of land! Located just minutes away from Lake Granbury and DeCordova Bend Park, this home offers 1,140 square feet of open living space. This impeccably maintained home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths with vaulted ceilings & large windows for tons of natural light. Enjoy contemporary updates and a comfortable open living space that is warm and well-lit, a well-appointed kitchen that boasts up-to-date appliances and adjacent breakfast nook. Retreat to the private master bedroom with its own en-suite bathroom. Two additional split bedrooms and bath provide ample space for family & guests. Enjoy peaceful living with no HOA restrictions, ensuring freedom and flexibility. Given its proximity to the lake and park, this property ensures the pleasures of lakeside leisure without sacrificing convenience. Walk to the lake and fish from the dock! Enjoy quick access to HWY 377.

16. 2025-11-30
    historical
17. 2025-08-09
    listed $169,000 Active
18. 2025-07-31
    historical
19. 2025-07-22
    price $174,000
20. 2025-06-13
    status Active
21. 2025-06-10
    historical
22. 2025-05-24
    price $179,000
23. 2025-05-05
    price $182,000
24. 2025-03-18
    price $183,000
25. 2025-02-20
    price $185,000
26. 2025-02-08
    price $189,000
27. 2024-12-22
    listed $199,000 Active
28. 2024-11-21
    soldstatus
29. 2021-02-26
    soldstatus
30. 2020-10-06
    soldstatus
31. 2020-09-22
    soldstatus
32. 2020-09-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,488 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$605/yr (+$50/mo · 24.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,488
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$219
• After-tax cash flow: $3,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Listed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-09 Listed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $174,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-06-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $182,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $183,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-22 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,488 · +60.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.