1209 Oak Ave · Crossett, AR 71635

$82,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,341 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1951 0.35 ac lot $62/sqft · 38% below area Est $133k · 38% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home or investment property. Home features a grand living room with beautiful fireplace, large eat-in kitchen with dining area, 3 bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms, central heat and air, large yard with a huge storage shed with concrete floors.

Key facts

• Grand living room
• Huge storage shed
• Large eat-in kitchen

Tags

• GRAND LIVING ROOM
• BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• LARGE YARD
• HUGE STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.4% in Crossett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#299 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Crossett School District (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #213 of 238 in AR (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashley County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,075 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.05%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,927
• List price: $82,500
• Delta: -37.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1412 Chestnut St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+5%)	2mo	$165,000	$117	65
1107 Oak	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (-11%)	8mo	$72,000	$60	62
803 Walnut St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (-3%)	4mo	$60,000	$46	54
1306 Cypress St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,471 (+10%)	14mo	$129,000	$88	53
1205 Hickory St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+14%)	10mo	$160,000	$105	51
1004 Cedar St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-11%)	21mo	$62,000	$52	48
107 Williams	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-8%)	9mo	$95,000	$77	45
1104 Parkway	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,215 (-9%)	12mo	$40,000	$33	44
708 Walnut	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+10%)	11mo	$43,000	$29	42
204 Williams St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+7%)	8mo	$80,000	$56	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $6,295
• Equity at exit: $12,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $30,753
• Equity at exit: $7,133

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71635

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $654

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,500 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,500 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,500 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,500 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,500 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,500 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $82,500 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,500 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,500 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,500 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $82,500 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,500 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,500 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,500 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-02-23
    listed $82,500 New Listing 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property. Home features a grand living room with beautiful fireplace, large eat-in kitchen with dining area, 3 bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms, central heat and air, large yard with a huge storage shed with concrete floors.

18. 2026-02-12
    historical
19. 2025-08-27
    price $82,500
20. 2025-08-26
    status Price Change
21. 2025-08-25
    historical
22. 2025-02-24
    listed $85,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $592 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $592 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,003
• − Management: −$1,003
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable income: $2,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$601
• After-tax cash flow: $3,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crossett School District
• NCES district ID: 0504800
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,682
• Composite: 16.73/100
• National rank: #9162
• State rank: #213 of 238 in AR

Livability — Crossett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #20393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crossett, AR
• Population (ZIP): 10,368

Population outlook (Ashley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,757 people
• By 2030: 17,541 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 15,243 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 13,136 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 8,901 · -52.5%
• By 2100: 5,626 · -70.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.2% · R 73.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+25.4 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.73%
• Current HPI: 125.616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $82,500 CARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $82,500 CARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $85,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $592 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.