205 Holly Dr · Natchez, MS 39120

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1955 8,276 sqft lot $131/sqft · 46% above area Est $113k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully renovated three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is nestled in a serene neighborhood, perfect for those seeking a peaceful retreat while remaining conveniently close to all the amenities you need. As you step inside, you'll appreciate the modern updates that blend seamlessly with the home's classic charm. The spacious living areas are designed for comfort and relaxation, offering plenty of natural light throughout. The kitchen features contemporary appliances and ample counter space. The master suite includes a private bathroom for your convenience, while the two additional bedrooms are perfect are perfect for family, guests, or a home office. This home boasts a large yard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply soaking up the sun. The expansive workshop in the backyard is a fantastic bonus, ideal for hobbyist, tools, or extra storage space. Centrally located, you'll find yourself just minutes away from all Natchez schools, Walmart, and the hospital, ensuring that all of your shopping and healthcare needs are easily met. Schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• Renovated residence
• Modern updates
• Centrally located

Tags

• RENOVATED RESIDENCE
• MODERN UPDATES
• LARGE YARD
• EXPANSIVE WORKSHOP
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.3% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $129k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,500
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 13.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Kenwood Ln	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,005 (+2%)	3mo	$105,000	$104	88
1301 Westwood Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0	965 (-2%)	2mo	$109,000	$113	77
209 Holly Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+5%)	20mo	$109,500	$106	68
12 Maplewood Ln	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-7%)	2mo	$99,500	$109	64
25 Maplewood Ln	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	951 (-3%)	19mo	$95,000	$100	54
302 Holly Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+12%)	24mo	$118,500	$108	54
1501 Eastwood Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (-9%)	5mo	$54,500	$61	53
3703 Sherwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+12%)	13mo	$106,000	$96	52
8 Oakwood Ln	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+9%)	13mo	$99,000	$92	49
1306 Eastwood Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (+8%)	12mo	$90,000	$85	49
19 Beechwood Ln	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	873 (-11%)	12mo	$69,500	$80	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,908
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $9,808
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,271/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $241	+0% $204	+5% $168	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $152	+0% $204	+5% $256	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $237	base $204	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $129,000 1128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1128 chars)

    This beautifully renovated three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is nestled in a serene neighborhood, perfect for those seeking a peaceful retreat while remaining conveniently close to all the amenities you need. As you step inside, you'll appreciate the modern updates that blend seamlessly with the home's classic charm. The spacious living areas are designed for comfort and relaxation, offering plenty of natural light throughout. The kitchen features contemporary appliances and ample counter space. The master suite includes a private bathroom for your convenience, while the two additional bedrooms are perfect are perfect for family, guests, or a home office. This home boasts a large yard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply soaking up the sun. The expansive workshop in the backyard is a fantastic bonus, ideal for hobbyist, tools, or extra storage space. Centrally located, you'll find yourself just minutes away from all Natchez schools, Walmart, and the hospital, ensuring that all of your shopping and healthcare needs are easily met. Schedule a viewing today!

17. 2026-01-20
    listed $139,500 Active 1128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1128 chars)

    This beautifully renovated three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is nestled in a serene neighborhood, perfect for those seeking a peaceful retreat while remaining conveniently close to all the amenities you need. As you step inside, you'll appreciate the modern updates that blend seamlessly with the home's classic charm. The spacious living areas are designed for comfort and relaxation, offering plenty of natural light throughout. The kitchen features contemporary appliances and ample counter space. The master suite includes a private bathroom for your convenience, while the two additional bedrooms are perfect are perfect for family, guests, or a home office. This home boasts a large yard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply soaking up the sun. The expansive workshop in the backyard is a fantastic bonus, ideal for hobbyist, tools, or extra storage space. Centrally located, you'll find yourself just minutes away from all Natchez schools, Walmart, and the hospital, ensuring that all of your shopping and healthcare needs are easily met. Schedule a viewing today!

18. 2019-08-15
    soldstatus 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    RENOVATED HOME AND IS PRICED TO SELL. SO MANY EXTRAS !! PORCH & CARPORT HAVE ORIGINAL BEAD BOARDING CEILING. ORIGINAL OAK HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING AREA & BEDROOMS THAT WERE REFINISHED ON 2015. COMPLETE WITH 2" FAUX WOOD BLINDS, BRUSHED NICKEL LIGHT FIXTURES & DOORKNOBS & HUNTER CEILING FANS. 1 YEAR OLD ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLE ROOF. 16' X 12' INSULATED SHOP WITH AIR & FULLY POWERED. KITCHEN HAS UPDATED APPLIANCES. GUEST BATH HAS VANITY WITH STORAGE, BEAD BOARD WAINSCOTING & NEW TUB. MUST SEE!! NONE

19. 2019-08-15
    soldstatus $42,500

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    RENOVATED HOME AND IS PRICED TO SELL. SO MANY EXTRAS !! PORCH & CARPORT HAVE ORIGINAL BEAD BOARDING CEILING. ORIGINAL OAK HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING AREA & BEDROOMS THAT WERE REFINISHED ON 2015. COMPLETE WITH 2" FAUX WOOD BLINDS, BRUSHED NICKEL LIGHT FIXTURES & DOORKNOBS & HUNTER CEILING FANS. 1 YEAR OLD ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLE ROOF. 16' X 12' INSULATED SHOP WITH AIR & FULLY POWERED. KITCHEN HAS UPDATED APPLIANCES. GUEST BATH HAS VANITY WITH STORAGE, BEAD BOARD WAINSCOTING & NEW TUB. MUST SEE!! NONE

20. 2019-02-20
    listed $109,900 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    RENOVATED HOME AND IS PRICED TO SELL. SO MANY EXTRAS !! PORCH & CARPORT HAVE ORIGINAL BEAD BOARDING CEILING. ORIGINAL OAK HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING AREA & BEDROOMS THAT WERE REFINISHED ON 2015. COMPLETE WITH 2" FAUX WOOD BLINDS, BRUSHED NICKEL LIGHT FIXTURES & DOORKNOBS & HUNTER CEILING FANS. 1 YEAR OLD ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLE ROOF. 16' X 12' INSULATED SHOP WITH AIR & FULLY POWERED. KITCHEN HAS UPDATED APPLIANCES. GUEST BATH HAS VANITY WITH STORAGE, BEAD BOARD WAINSCOTING & NEW TUB. MUST SEE!! NONE

21. 2015-04-23
    soldstatus $42,500
22. 2011-03-31
    soldstatus
23. 2010-10-16
    listed $35,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,271
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $2,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+259.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $129,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-20 Listed $139,500 MLSU
• 2019-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2019-08-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-02-20 Listed $109,900 MLSU
• 2015-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-10-16 Listed $35,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,271 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.