3922 Monica Ln · Johnsburg, IL 60051

$296,240

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,587 sqft · Townhouse · 264 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3,000 sqft lot $187/sqft · 9% below area Est $327k · 9% under $219/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW MIDDLE UNIT 2-STORY 2 BEDS + LOFT / 2.1 BATHS SLAB TOWN HOUSE AVAILABLE IN LATE DECEMBER 2025 WITH JOHNSBURG SCHOOLS! 6 Plans to Choose from including Three Ranch Style Town Houses and Three Two Story Town Houses. TOWNHOUSE IS LOCATED IN A PLANNED URBAN DEVELOPMENT (PUD) AND IS APPROVED FOR FHA, VA AND CONVENTIONAL FINANCING! Tucked away in a corner of scenic McHenry county, Remington Grove boasts quality new townhomes in Johnsburg. This is a beautiful area that still maintains its small town charm. Great schools! 77 NEW CONSTRUCTION LUXURY TOWN HOUSES TO BE BUILT!

Key facts

• $219 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Johnsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#111 in IL, #1,796 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnsburg CUSD 12 (suburban): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #321 of 620 in IL (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ringwood School Primary Ctr (433 students, 0% FRL); Johnsburg Jr High School (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #332 of 665 statewide, top 55%, 344 students, 0% FRL); Johnsburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 560 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 19% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $223,959 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,661
• List price: $296,240
• Delta: -9.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3906 Monica Ln	0.02mi	2/2.5	1,587 (0%)	1mo	$300,730	$189	98
3908 Monica Ln	0.02mi	2/2.5	1,587 (0%)	2mo	$296,690	$187	97
3903 Monica Ln #2	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,587 (0%)	3mo	$332,930	$210	95
3910 Monica Ln	0.02mi	2/2.5	1,587 (0%)	6mo	$296,500	$187	94
3915 Monica Ln #3	0.04mi	2/2.5	1,587 (0%)	6mo	$324,865	$205	93
3909 Monica Ln #5	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,565 (-1%)	2mo	$370,910	$237	92
3901 Monica Ln #1	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,565 (-1%)	2mo	$370,265	$237	91
3928 Monica Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	2mo	$316,930	$226	77
3920 Monica Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	2mo	$349,775	$250	76
3904 Monica Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+12%)	0mo	$316,000	$177	72
3919 Monica Ln #5	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,785 (+12%)	6mo	$369,905	$207	72
3912 Monica Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	7mo	$320,725	$229	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $129,856
• Equity at exit: $266,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $407,631
• Equity at exit: $575,529

Cash invested: $82,947 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $310,000 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 176 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +8.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 60051

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,554
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,444/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$219
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $224,327

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-292	-5% $-395	+0% $-497	+5% $-599	+10% $-702
Rent	-10% $-674	-5% $-585	+0% $-497	+5% $-409	+10% $-320
Rate	-1.0pp $-348	-0.5pp $-422	base $-497	+0.5pp $-574	+1.0pp $-652

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,060
• Closing costs: $8,887
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2534 Evergreen Cir Unit 2534 McHenry, IL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,400	$1.49	0d	1	0.88mi
2554 Evergreen Cir Unit 2554 McHenry, IL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	156d	1	0.92mi
2554 Evergreen Cir Unit 2554 McHenry, IL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	123d	1	0.92mi
3415 Blake Rd McHenry, IL	3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,982	$2.16	0d	14	1.29mi
1941 N Orleans St McHenry, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,680	$1.79	0d	6	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $296,240 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $296,240 Active 263 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $296,240 Active 262 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $296,240 Active 261 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $296,240 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $296,240 Active 258 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $296,240 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $296,240 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $296,240 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $296,240 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $296,240 Active 253 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $296,240 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $296,240 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $296,240 Active 250 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $296,240 Active 249 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $296,240 Active 248 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $296,240 Active 247 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $296,240 Active 246 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $296,240 Active 245 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $296,240 Active 244 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $296,240 Active 243 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $296,240 Active 242 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $296,240 Active 241 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $296,240 Active 240 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $296,240 Active 239 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $296,240 Active 238 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $296,240 Active 237 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $296,240 Active 236 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $296,240 Active 235 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $296,240 Active 234 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $296,240 Active 233 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $296,240 Active 232 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $296,240 Active 231 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $296,240 Active 230 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $296,240 Active 229 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $296,240 Active 228 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $296,240 Active 227 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $296,240 Active 226 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $296,240 Active 225 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $296,240 Active 224 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $296,240 Active 223 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $296,240 Active 222 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $296,240 Active 221 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $296,240 Active 220 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $296,240 Active 219 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $296,240 Active 218 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $296,240 Active 217 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $296,240 Active 216 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $296,240 Active 215 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $296,240 Active 214 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,594
• − Property taxes: −$4,444
• − Insurance: −$1,481
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − HOA: −$2,628
• − Depreciation: −$8,618
• Taxable loss: −$11,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,686
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ringwood School Primary Ctr Middle Johnsburg Jr High School F IL #332/665 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Johnsburg High School F IL #187/693 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg CUSD 12
• NCES district ID: 1720490
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $79,626
• Composite: 22.0/100
• National rank: #8206
• State rank: #321 of 620 in IL

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Johnsburg

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #1796

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnsburg, IL
• County: McHenry · 305,342 people
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
• Population (ZIP): 23,931
• Household income: $104,227
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

---

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 305,342 people
• By 2030: 301,491 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 288,211 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 268,430 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 226,209 · -25.9%
• By 2100: 181,247 · -40.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.3) · D 46.6% · R 51.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.3 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+8.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.50%
• Current HPI: 612.07
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $294,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid