569 Castleman Branch Rd · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$100,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1978 5.00 ac lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Brick ranch home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, featuring a living room, family room with gas-burning fireplace, along with an attached 2-car garage. Property is in need of significant repairs and is being sold as-is. All contracts are subject to third-party approval. Suitable for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shepherdsville Elementary (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #473 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 516 students, 72% FRL); Bullitt Lick Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 461 students, 67% FRL); Bullitt Central High School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.76%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $29,550
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $84,766
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $774	-5% $746	+0% $718	+5% $689	+10% $661
Rent	-10% $574	-5% $646	+0% $718	+5% $789	+10% $861
Rate	-1.0pp $768	-0.5pp $743	base $718	+0.5pp $692	+1.0pp $665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   listed $100,000 Active
3. 2016-05-23
   soldstatus $158,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,798 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,798 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $6,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-36.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $100,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,798 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.