3666 E 18 Mile Rd · Pickford, MI 49774

$48,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1890 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Rustic Upper Peninsula Hunting Camp. Beautiful 10 Acres with a Creek Running Through the Property. Older Artesian Well & Privy. No Septic or Running Water in the Camp Seller is a Licensed Real Broker in the State of California

Key facts

• Privy
• 10 acres
• Creek

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• CREEK
• ARTESIAN WELL
• PRIVY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential hunting camp; Two levels
• Construction: Asphalt construction material; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: On waterfront; Irregular lot with few trees; Approximately 10 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Interior features: Wood frame windows; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pickford Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #279 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Chippewa County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chippewa County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.83%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $32,082
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $79,353
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49774

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $449

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 229-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $48,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 123-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $48,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $7,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $5,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pickford Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2628020
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,740
• Composite: 30.31/100
• National rank: #6274
• State rank: #279 of 540 in MI

Livability — Pickford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,994

Population outlook (Chippewa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,043 people
• By 2030: 36,431 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 34,911 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 33,350 · -10.0%
• By 2075: 29,789 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 24,171 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Chippewa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -0.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.57%
• Current HPI: 158.8149
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $48,000 EUPBR

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2021): $992 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.