26 B Moccasin Dr Unit B · Manchester, NJ 08759

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Average condition $66/sqft · 35% below area Est $184k · 35% under $443/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Crestwood Village 4, this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers incredible potential and plenty of room to make it your own. Featuring a bright and inviting sunroom, generous living and dining areas, an eat-in kitchen, large laundry room, and a one-car garage, the thoughtful layout provides both comfort and functionality. The primary suite includes its own full bath and ample closet space, creating a comfortable private retreat. The second bedroom and bath offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. With great bones and abundant space, this home is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal style and updates. Enjoy peaceful, tree-lined surroundings, a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere, and an active clubhouse lifestyle.

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Large laundry room
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• SUNROOM
• LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• TREE-LINED SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.46%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,805
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -35.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Woodview Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,613 (-10%)	5mo	$485,000	$301	62
107 Hudson Pkwy Unit B	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,558 (-13%)	6mo	$215,000	$138	51
2A Jackson Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,550 (-14%)	10mo	$196,500	$127	47
3B Dixon Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,558 (-13%)	12mo	$207,500	$133	46
15 Monmouth Ln Unit B	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,565 (-13%)	6mo	$129,900	$83	46
14 A Yorktowne Pkwy	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,545 (-14%)	4mo	$210,000	$136	46
1-B Pilgrim Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,565 (-13%)	3mo	$163,000	$104	46
77 Woodview Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,868 (+4%)	12mo	$522,000	$279	45
12B Juniper Ln #50	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	4mo	$155,000	$100	42
91 Birchwood Dr Unit B	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	10mo	$253,000	$164	39
12 Juniper Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	8mo	$245,000	$159	38
23A Canton Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	10mo	$215,000	$139	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $18,968
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $66,626
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$443
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $678	-5% $637	+0% $596	+5% $555	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $410	-5% $503	+0% $596	+5% $689	+10% $782
Rate	-1.0pp $656	-0.5pp $626	base $596	+0.5pp $565	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	2d	1	0.78mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.05mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.24mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	21d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $443 · $5,316/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-03-13
   listed $139,000 Active 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   Located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Crestwood Village 4, this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers incredible potential and plenty of room to make it your own. Featuring a bright and inviting sunroom, generous living and dining areas, an eat-in kitchen, large laundry room, and a one-car garage, the thoughtful layout provides both comfort and functionality. The primary suite includes its own full bath and ample closet space, creating a comfortable private retreat. The second bedroom and bath offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. With great bones and abundant space, this home is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal style and updates. Enjoy peaceful, tree-lined surroundings, a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere, and an active clubhouse lifestyle.

10. 2026-01-16
    price $139,900
11. 2025-12-03
    listed $144,900 Active
12. 2025-08-06
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$5,316
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $5,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,422
• After-tax cash flow: $5,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home has average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the fresh paint, updated kitchen cabinets, and energy-efficient windows.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinetry may benefit from a fresh coat of paint or replacement.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated fixtures may benefit from replacement or updating.
• Minor Exterior paint — Fresh coat of paint may enhance curb appeal.
• Minor Carpeting — Clean or replace carpeting to improve comfort and appearance.
• Minor Interior paint — Touch-ups may improve the overall appearance of the interior.
• Minor Windows — Clean or replace windows to improve energy efficiency and appearance.
• Minor HVAC system — Visual inspection and maintenance may improve system performance.
• Minor Landscaping — Update and maintain landscaping to improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and update kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint and updated cabinets can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace dated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase the home's value and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both HVAC system maintenance and potential upgrade — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase the home's value and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value, especially for potential buyers who prefer these materials.
• Both Paint and update interior walls — Fresh paint and updated interior walls can improve the home's appearance and increase its value, especially for potential buyers who prefer a more modern look.
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — Energy-efficient windows can improve the home's energy efficiency, reduce utility bills, and increase its value, especially for potential buyers who prioritize energy efficiency.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase the home's value and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Dated cabinetry may benefit from a fresh coat of paint or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated fixtures may benefit from replacement or updating.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · Fresh coat of paint may enhance curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpeting · Clean or replace carpeting to improve comfort and appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior paint · Touch-ups may improve the overall appearance of the interior.	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · Clean or replace windows to improve energy efficiency and appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC system · Visual inspection and maintenance may improve system performance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Update and maintain landscaping to improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$4,000–24,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and update kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint and updated cabinets can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace dated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase the home's value and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance and potential upgrade — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase the home's value and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value, especially for potential buyers who prefer these materials. ↑
• Both Paint and update interior walls — Fresh paint and updated interior walls can improve the home's appearance and increase its value, especially for potential buyers who prefer a more modern look. ↑
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — Energy-efficient windows can improve the home's energy efficiency, reduce utility bills, and increase its value, especially for potential buyers who prioritize energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase the home's value and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $139,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $139,900 MOMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $144,900 MOMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $149,900 MOMLS