816 Stewart Dr Plan · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured · 244 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 243 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $165,000

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home (Plan name: 816 Stewart Dr)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1404

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 583 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.02%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,642
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,341
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 583
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $250	+0% $193	+5% $136	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $126	+0% $193	+5% $260	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $235	base $193	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Magnolia Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1248	$1,499	$1.20	3d	1	0.01mi
423 Highway 466 Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1172	$1,584	$1.35	3d	22	0.54mi
224 W McClendon St Lady Lake, FL	2.0	1.0	877	$1,500	$1.71	25d	1	0.54mi
367 Sunny Oaks Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1265	$1,455	$1.15	4d	17	0.88mi
409 Bay Oak Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,950	$1.41	5d	1	1.03mi
715 Hudson Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,700	$1.94	25d	1	1.13mi
508 Tarrson Blvd Unit 1525263P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,262	$1.25	13d	1	1.14mi
824 County Road 466 Lady Lake, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1175	$1,249	$1.06	2d	17	1.21mi
710 Cortez Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	25d	1	1.29mi
101 Caroline Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	12d	1	1.35mi
323 Chula Vista Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1486	$2,700	$1.82	25d	1	1.36mi
602 Jason Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,650	$0.96	25d	1	1.43mi
617 Webb Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1542	$3,000	$1.95	25d	1	1.44mi
606 Second Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,800	$1.46	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 223 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B