9135 Plank Rd · Orwell, OH 44450

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1947 0.37 ac lot $104/sqft · 30% below area Est $143k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits! This classic ranch sits on a serene country road and offers great potential for renovation. Relax on the covered front porch with swing or entertain on the back deck. Includes an expansive 31' x 36' attached 2+ car garage—perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or storage.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Attached car garage
• Back deck

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• ATTACHED CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bloomfield-Mespo Local (rural): math 70% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #439 of 802 in OH (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,013
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -30.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8927 Plank Rd	0.33mi	3/1.0	978 (+2%)	18mo	$135,900	$139	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $21,167
• Equity at exit: $47,758

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $63,084
• Equity at exit: $75,851

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44450

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Opportunity awaits! This classic ranch sits on a serene country road and offers great potential for renovation. Relax on the covered front porch with swing or entertain on the back deck. Includes an expansive 31' x 36' attached 2+ car garage—perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or storage.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $100,000 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Opportunity awaits! This classic ranch sits on a serene country road and offers great potential for renovation. Relax on the covered front porch with swing or entertain on the back deck. Includes an expansive 31' x 36' attached 2+ car garage—perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or storage.

3. 2026-04-22
   price $119,900 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Opportunity awaits! This classic ranch sits on a serene country road and offers great potential for renovation. Relax on the covered front porch with swing or entertain on the back deck. Includes an expansive 31' x 36' attached 2+ car garage—perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or storage.

4. 2026-03-24
   listed $125,000 Active 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Opportunity awaits! This classic ranch sits on a serene country road and offers great potential for renovation. Relax on the covered front porch with swing or entertain on the back deck. Includes an expansive 31' x 36' attached 2+ car garage—perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or storage.

5. 2002-04-18
   soldstatus $75,900
6. 1990-10-02
   soldstatus $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,397 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$163/yr (+$14/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$937
• − Management: −$937
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$98
• After-tax cash flow: $1,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bloomfield-Mespo Local
• NCES district ID: 3905009
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,195
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #2874
• State rank: #439 of 802 in OH

Livability — Orwell

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9102

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 2,217
• Household income: $48,289
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13.8

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 11%
• Common ancestry: Polish 7% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · German/W. Germanic 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Current HPI: 236.704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+292.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $100,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $119,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-24 Listed $125,000 MLSNOW
• 2002-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records
• 1990-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.