47 Pier Ave · Northville, NY 11901

$835,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2000 0.56 ac lot Est $1398k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Propane available; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Measured living area
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Stone countertops; Partially finished basement; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $835k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($183k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $835k).
• Cap rate 28.2% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $234k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $545k; list at $835k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $835,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.29%
• DSCR: 4.48
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,397,808
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Simeon Rd	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,390 (-2%)	4mo	$940,000	$393	72
73 Pier Ave	0.07mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+14%)	7mo	$1,600,000	$571	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $836,632
• Equity at exit: $124,501

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.47×
• Total profit: $1,981,152
• Equity at exit: $72,196

Cash invested: $233,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $26,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,379
• Tax from tax record: −$1,037 /mo · $12,442/yr
• Insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,587
• Net cashflow: $15,254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,296

Max offer price $835,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15,727	-5% $15,490	+0% $15,254	+5% $15,018	+10% $14,781
Rent	-10% $13,152	-5% $14,203	+0% $15,254	+5% $16,305	+10% $17,356
Rate	-1.0pp $15,675	-0.5pp $15,466	base $15,254	+0.5pp $15,038	+1.0pp $14,818

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $208,750
• Closing costs: $25,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Bay Run Riverhead, NY	4.0	3.5	1901	$25,000	$13.15	19d	1	0.90mi
120 Promenade Dr Aquebogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1825	$29,000	$15.89	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $835,000 Active
3. 2026-04-09
   historical $835,000
4. 2020-11-06
   soldstatus $545,000
5. 2013-08-14
   soldstatus $385,000
6. 2013-07-31
   soldstatus $385,000 Closed 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

7. 2013-06-11
   status Under Contract 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

8. 2013-05-14
   price $399,500 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

9. 2013-04-30
   price $425,000 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

10. 2013-04-09
    price $439,000 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

11. 2013-03-14
    price $455,000 Price Change 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

12. 2013-01-25
    listed $469,000 New 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Mint Condition 3 Bedroom Ranch On Half Acre With Beach At End Of Pier Ave. Amenities Include: Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace In Family Room, Large Master Suite, Cathedral Ceilings With Open Floor Plan Living. Landscaped Yard With Deck And Inground Sprinklers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,442 · $1,037/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,277 · $1,106/mo
• Expected delta: +$835/yr (+$70/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $319,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,773
• − Property taxes: −$12,442
• − Insurance: −$4,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,540
• − Management: −$25,540
• − Depreciation: −$24,291
• Taxable income: $180,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43,319
• After-tax cash flow: $139,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+78.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $835,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Coming Soon $835,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $545,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-31 Sold (MLS) $385,000 MLSLI
• 2013-06-11 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-05-14 Price Changed $399,500 MLSLI
• 2013-04-30 Price Changed $425,000 MLSLI
• 2013-04-09 Price Changed $439,000 MLSLI
• 2013-03-14 Price Changed $455,000 MLSLI
• 2013-01-25 Listed $469,000 MLSLI

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,442 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.