137 Citrus Ridge Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 594 Days on market

Built 1987 2,391 sqft lot $104/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market! New Roof! New Hold down straps. Electrical brought up to code! No HUD Certification. Cash offers only.  Come see this Hidden gem in the well sought after 55 and over community, Citrus Ridge. Just off the beaten path of Highway 27 in Davenport. This house has been meticulously cared for. Upgrades include, windows, window treatments, security system, generator port at driveway, covered carport for two vehicles. Huge Florida room! Home comes almost completely furnished, including television and small appliances in kitchen. 8 x 12 Smith built shed. The community has a swimming pool, hot tub, clubhouse, roasting pit, tennis court, shuffleboard, and play area. Don't le

Key facts

• 2,391 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homesteaded; Total living area approximately 408 square feet; Lot size approximately 0.05 acres (40 x 60); Listed direction faces south
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $1,250; monthly equivalent $104.17); Association requires fees; Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Park; Playground; Pool; Racquetball court; Tennis courts; Golf carts allowed; Wheelchair access; Special community restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 30 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Attached property; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Shed(s); Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions 40 x 60

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Vaulted ceilings; Storm windows; Insulated windows; Window treatments; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry inside; Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 594 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $99k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 594 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-3,359
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,798
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $972

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2926 Savoir Ave Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	300	$800	$2.67	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $104 · $1,248/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolsecurity

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 594 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 593 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 592 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 591 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 589 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 586 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 585 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 584 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 583 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 580 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 578 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 577 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 576 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    status Active
15. 2026-03-04
    status Pending
16. 2025-12-02
    price $104,000
17. 2025-10-21
    status Active
18. 2025-10-21
    price $119,000
19. 2025-07-20
    status Pending
20. 2025-07-17
    price $99,000
21. 2025-06-01
    price $109,000
22. 2024-12-07
    price $120,000
23. 2024-06-17
    listed $125,000 Active
24. 2019-04-24
    soldstatus $50,000
25. 2001-12-07
    soldstatus $35,500
26. 1998-12-11
    soldstatus $34,500
27. 1987-05-01
    soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$402
• After-tax cash flow: $2,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+706.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $104,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-07 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-17 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records
• 1998-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,244 · +112.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.