25 Willow Bend Dr S · Billings, MT 59102

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $79k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Backs up to a field
• Split-bedroom layout
• Wood stove

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER LOT
• BACKS UP TO A FIELD
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• VAULTED LR CEILING
• WOOD STOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single family residence); One story
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Corner lot; Landscaped yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range, oven, range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Gas range; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Elysian Elementary (rural): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #15 of 116 in MT (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elysian School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #57 of 293 statewide, top 22%, 307 students, 0% FRL); Elysian Middle School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade C, #26 of 146 statewide, top 22%, 144 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $63,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.76%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,344
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Bridlewood Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	9mo	$30,000	$25	62
16 Brookpark Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-10%)	7mo	$40,000	$33	62
31 W Meadow Drive Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-8%)	10mo	$47,500	$38	60
36 Chestnut Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	2mo	$55,000	$46	59
8 Redrock Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	10mo	$89,900	$74	58
6 Northglen Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	3mo	$89,500	$74	57
13 Willow Bend Dr N	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	21mo	$79,900	$66	57
12 Woodgrain Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-12%)	23mo	$32,000	$27	53
31 Wheatland Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	21mo	$77,700	$64	52
14 Walnut Grove Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-10%)	20mo	$125,000	$101	47
44 Bridlewood Dr Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-11%)	20mo	$70,000	$58	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $48,205
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $129,467
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59102

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3900 Olympic Blvd Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,695	$1.76	13d	5	0.90mi
371 Cape Cod Dr Billings, MT	2.0	1.5	1175	$1,495	$1.27	21d	1	0.98mi
353 Cape Cod Dr Unit 3 Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,295	$1.23	13d	1	0.99mi
3900 Victory Cir Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	966	$1,360	$1.41	13d	21	1.11mi
218 Brookshire Blvd Billings, MT	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,445	$1.28	21d	1	1.38mi
3040 Central Ave Billings, MT	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,867	$2.10	13d	25	1.40mi
501 S 44th St W Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,250	$2.20	13d	7	1.48mi
611 S 44th St W Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,150	$1.57	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $70,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-03-14
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $10,020
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,405
• After-tax cash flow: $8,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elysian Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3009840
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,094
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #2705
• State rank: #15 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Billings, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 47,977
• Household income: $76,141
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1584.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -364.20%
• Current HPI: 205.0915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $85,000 BMTMLS