102 Goya Dr · Fairfield, CA 94534

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 1978 $150/sqft · 16% below area Est $142k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double Wide Mobile Home at 102 Goya is Located in Casa Nova Mobile Home Park, one of Fairfield's most sought after Mobile Home Parks. An Affordable Double-Wide Mobile Home, Offering (20 X 40) 800 Square Feet of Living Space. Popular Floor Plan that includes a Living Room, Dining Room and a Dedicated Laundry Area with a Washing Machine and Dryer. The Kitchen includes a Free-Standing Gas Range with a Hood Over the Range and a Refrigerator. Bathroom has a Shower Over Tub. Ceiling Fans for Added Comfort. Exterior Amenities include a Covered Front Porch with view of the Hills, a Rear Porch Deck with Panoramic Views of the Hills and a 1 Car Covered Carport. Additionally, the Property comes with 2 Large Vinyl Storage Sheds. No Rear Neighbors to the Rear of the Mobile Home ensuring Privacy. Community Offers a Range of Social & Recreational Activities, such as Potluck Dinners, Access to a Food Bank, and Bunco Game Nights. Residents can also enjoy the Club House which has a Pool Table, Library and Kitchen. Other Community Amenities include a Swimming Pool and a Laundry Room. The Monthly Space Rent is $620, with Additional Charges for Sewer, Trash and Metered Gas and Electricity. Specifically Designed 55+ Community. 1 Person Must be 55 or Older / Second Resident Maybe 40+. Housing for Older Persons 55 +. All Information Provided Should be Verified Prior to Purchase.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Panoramic views
• Rear porch deck

Tags

• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• FREE-STANDING GAS RANGE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR PORCH DECK
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• LARGE VINYL STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.67%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,500
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -15.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Dali Ct	0.12mi	2/1.0	768 (-4%)	5mo	$65,000	$85	84
41 Goya Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	0mo	$135,000	$188	82
32 Goya Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	872 (+9%)	6mo	$112,000	$128	71
68 Goya Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	864 (+8%)	16mo	$149,000	$172	69
7 Dali Ct	0.15mi	2/2.0	776 (-3%)	18mo	$125,900	$162	69
83 Goya Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	868 (+8%)	20mo	$164,900	$190	65
62 Goya Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	24mo	$130,000	$155	63
13 Dali Ct	0.12mi	2/2.0	720 (-10%)	20mo	$118,000	$164	57
77 Goya Dr	0.04mi	2/1.5	912 (+14%)	22mo	$159,900	$175	54
77 Goya Dr	0.04mi	2/1.5	912 (+14%)	22mo	$159,900	$175	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $32,384
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $78,357
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94534

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2550 Hilborn Rd Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,563	$2.95	13d	16	0.22mi
2323 Fairfield Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,901	$3.07	23d	5	0.50mi
2376 Fairfield Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$2,174	$3.51	13d	2	0.50mi
1111 Alaska Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$2,249	$2.86	13d	10	0.50mi
2355 Fairfield Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	769	$1,740	$2.26	13d	3	0.51mi
2450 Peach Tree Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	810	$2,199	$2.71	13d	2	0.57mi
100 Hawthorn Dr Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	726	$2,249	$3.10	13d	11	0.70mi
2915 N Texas St Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,225	$2.66	43d	2	0.75mi
2915 N Texas St Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,350	$2.79	13d	1	0.75mi
237 Alaska Ave Unit 8 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	43d	1	0.77mi
3001 N Texas St Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,374	$2.55	13d	8	0.81mi
2215 Peach Tree Dr Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$2,375	$3.39	13d	3	0.81mi
131 Alaska Ave Apt 12 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	43d	1	0.82mi
540 Pacific Ave Unit 6 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,800	$2.25	23d	1	0.84mi
2134 Union Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,395	$2.52	43d	1	0.85mi
101 Tabor Ave Unit A Fairfield, CA	3.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	0.98mi
181 Pacific Ave Unit 205D Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	808	$1,675	$2.07	23d	1	0.99mi
195 E Pacific Ave Unit 19 Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,949	$1.95	13d	1	1.08mi
2101 Santa Ana Dr Apt 48 Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	772	$1,395	$1.81	43d	1	1.13mi
2124 Santa Ana Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,020	$2.02	43d	1	1.16mi
1206 Dana Dr Unit 02 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,925	$1.75	43d	1	1.25mi
1240 Dana Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	43d	1	1.32mi
2800 Dover Ave Unit G6 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,095	$2.21	23d	1	1.34mi
319 E Tabor Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$2,111	$3.38	21d	4	1.35mi
50 El Basset Ct #50 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,450	$2.88	43d	1	1.36mi
53 El Basset Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	997	$2,100	$2.11	13d	1	1.38mi
1736 Fillmore St Unit 1 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	43d	1	1.39mi
1712 Arthur Ct Unit 1712A Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,800	$2.43	21d	1	1.45mi
1600 Travion Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,950	$2.33	43d	3	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $120,000 Active 1381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1381 chars)

    Double Wide Mobile Home at 102 Goya is Located in Casa Nova Mobile Home Park, one of Fairfield's most sought after Mobile Home Parks. An Affordable Double-Wide Mobile Home, Offering (20 X 40) 800 Square Feet of Living Space. Popular Floor Plan that includes a Living Room, Dining Room and a Dedicated Laundry Area with a Washing Machine and Dryer. The Kitchen includes a Free-Standing Gas Range with a Hood Over the Range and a Refrigerator. Bathroom has a Shower Over Tub. Ceiling Fans for Added Comfort. Exterior Amenities include a Covered Front Porch with view of the Hills, a Rear Porch Deck with Panoramic Views of the Hills and a 1 Car Covered Carport. Additionally, the Property comes with 2 Large Vinyl Storage Sheds. No Rear Neighbors to the Rear of the Mobile Home ensuring Privacy. Community Offers a Range of Social & Recreational Activities, such as Potluck Dinners, Access to a Food Bank, and Bunco Game Nights. Residents can also enjoy the Club House which has a Pool Table, Library and Kitchen. Other Community Amenities include a Swimming Pool and a Laundry Room. The Monthly Space Rent is $620, with Additional Charges for Sewer, Trash and Metered Gas and Electricity. Specifically Designed 55+ Community. 1 Person Must be 55 or Older / Second Resident Maybe 40+. Housing for Older Persons 55 +. All Information Provided Should be Verified Prior to Purchase.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $9,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,314
• After-tax cash flow: $8,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield-Suisun Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,654
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5157
• State rank: #238 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #10551

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 120,008
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,203
• Household income: $140,198
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Asian 24% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.51%
• Current HPI: 236.509
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $120,000 BAREIS