207 Hamilton Ave · Ballinger, TX 76821

$157,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1965 9,300 sqft lot $100/sqft · 32% above area Est $166k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3bed 2 1/2bath home in quite neighborhood. This house has tons of room for all you family's needs. Two car carport and large shop in the back yard.

Key facts

• Quiet neighborhood
• Large shop
• Two car carport

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• TWO CAR CARPORT
• LARGE SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Fiber cement exterior
• Construction: Built with fiber cement siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Outbuilding; Workshop; Chain link fencing; Paved city street frontage; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Window coverings; Den with fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups (electric and gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Ballinger ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #496 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballinger El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 368 students, 68% FRL); Ballinger J H (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 179 students, 61% FRL); Ballinger H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 266 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Runnels County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,505 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,414
• List price: $157,500
• Delta: -5.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Sargent Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+1%)	6mo	$89,000	$56	79
407 Largent Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-5%)	4mo	$54,724	$37	74
600 Mccarver Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-0%)	11mo	$188,500	$120	63
1105 N 5th Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,424 (-10%)	7mo	$158,000	$111	59
909 N 5th St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-10%)	14mo	$65,000	$46	59
1200 N 8th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-6%)	19mo	$156,500	$105	52
902 10th St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-2%)	18mo	$143,500	$93	52
802 N 11th St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-5%)	12mo	$164,900	$111	48
905 Ave D	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-3%)	15mo	$145,000	$95	46
403 Crosson St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,390 (-12%)	13mo	$85,000	$61	45
1203 8th St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,408 (-11%)	13mo	$125,000	$89	44
906 Country Club Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+14%)	11mo	$249,500	$139	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,853
• Equity at exit: $80,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $58,744
• Equity at exit: $132,536

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76821

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,238/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $117,505

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,500 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,500 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $157,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,500 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,500 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,500 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,500 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $157,500 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,500 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 457-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $157,500 Active 147-char remark
17. 2016-12-20
    soldstatus
18. 2015-05-26
    soldstatus
19. 2015-04-27
    soldstatus 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Charming 3bed 2 1/2bath home in quite neighborhood. This house has tons of room for all you family's needs. Two car carport and large shop in the back yard.

20. 2015-02-20
    listed $94,900 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Charming 3bed 2 1/2bath home in quite neighborhood. This house has tons of room for all you family's needs. Two car carport and large shop in the back yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,238 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,238 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$3,238
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballinger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,665
• Composite: 30.8/100
• National rank: #6144
• State rank: #496 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ballinger

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #11849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballinger, TX
• City population: 4,572
• Population (ZIP): 4,572

Population outlook (Runnels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,754 people
• By 2030: 10,843 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 10,946 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 10,981 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 11,103 · +3.2%
• By 2100: 10,051 · -6.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 20% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Runnels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.1% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.1 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+62.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Current HPI: 168.3222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $157,500 SAAR TX
• 2016-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-27 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2015-02-20 Listed $94,900 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,238 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.