The Mesa Verde (326) Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily · 301 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prepare dinner in the Mesa Verde's kitchen with an open concept layout. The primary suite is tucked away where you'll enjoy your own private oasis.

Key facts

• Private oasis
• Open concept layout
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE OASIS

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $255,265.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1877 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,529 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,265
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -0.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29135 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	1mo	$234,790	$164	90
29111 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	3mo	$249,990	$175	90
29123 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-1%)	1mo	$234,490	$166	90
29127 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	2mo	$239,990	$168	89
29147 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+2%)	1mo	$252,790	$174	87
29215 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-3%)	2mo	$224,900	$162	84
17415 Sage Run Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+11%)	0mo	$249,900	$158	71
29131 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+10%)	1mo	$259,290	$166	69
29230 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+11%)	1mo	$282,900	$179	64
16810 Spotted Oak Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+3%)	1mo	$223,990	$152	61
16818 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+2%)	2mo	$235,990	$163	60
16802 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-7%)	2mo	$223,990	$169	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-66,252
• Equity at exit: $38,061

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-103,597
• Equity at exit: $22,071

Cash invested: $71,474 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 54 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $257,900 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 267 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1877
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,339
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,829/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,233

Max offer price $210,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-218	+0% $-306	+5% $-395	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-452	-5% $-379	+0% $-306	+5% $-233	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-241	base $-306	+0.5pp $-372	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,816
• Closing costs: $7,658
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,600	$1.09	41d	1	0.72mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,600	$1.09	31d	1	0.72mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	10d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $254,990 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $254,990 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $254,990 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $254,990 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $254,990 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $254,990 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $254,990 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    price $254,990 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $229,990 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $229,990 Active 290 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $229,990 Active 289 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $229,990 Active 288 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $229,990 Active 287 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $229,990 Active 286 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $229,990 Active 285 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $229,990 Active 284 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    pricedays on market $229,990 Active 283 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $249,990 Active 282 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $249,990 Active 281 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 280 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $249,990 Active 279 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $249,990 Active 278 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $249,990 Active 277 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 276 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 275 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $249,990 Active 274 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    price $249,990 Active 273 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $251,990 Active 273 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $251,990 Active 272 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $251,990 Active 271 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $251,990 Active 270 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $251,990 Active 269 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $251,990 Active 268 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $251,990 Active 267 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 266 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 265 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 264 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    pricedays on market $251,990 Active 263 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $256,990 Active 262 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $256,990 Active 261 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $256,990 Active 260 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $256,990 Active 259 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $256,990 Active 258 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $256,990 Active 257 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $256,990 Active 256 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $256,990 Active 255 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $256,990 Active 254 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $256,990 Active 253 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,299
• − Property taxes: −$3,829
• − Insurance: −$1,276
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$7,426
• Taxable loss: −$8,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Houston, TX is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace landscaping — Fresh landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $230,590 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,590 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $252,590 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $259,590 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $255,590 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $233,940 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $256,940 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Listed $226,940 Zillow