8607 Green Bliss · Elmendorf, TX 78222

$150,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $178k · 15% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pima - The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $151k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.5% in Elmendorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Floresville ISD (town): math 32% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #504 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Floresville Middle (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 904 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,939 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8635 Willow Xing	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-0%)	0mo	$174,999	$129	97
8611 Willow Xing	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-0%)	1mo	$196,999	$145	97
8539 Willow Xing	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-0%)	2mo	$181,999	$134	95
9802 Onyx Path	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+3%)	8mo	$198,999	$142	87
9822 Onyx Path	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-7%)	7mo	$186,999	$148	81
8615 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+9%)	1mo	$187,999	$127	77
8559 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+9%)	2mo	$194,999	$131	76
8547 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+9%)	3mo	$192,999	$130	76
6730 Pumice Pl	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	7mo	$145,999	$123	73
8555 Green Bliss	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	1mo	$162,999	$106	73
8535 Green Bliss	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	2mo	$163,999	$107	72
217 Cimarron	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (+1%)	6mo	$225,000	$164	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,021
• Equity at exit: $22,514

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $23,635
• Equity at exit: $13,056

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78222

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$189 /mo · $2,265/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $150,999

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $287	+0% $235	+5% $183	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $166	+0% $235	+5% $304	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $273	base $235	+0.5pp $196	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricestatusdays on market $150,999 Price Change 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on market $170,999 Back on Market 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $150,999 Pending 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,999 Back on Market 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,999 Back on Market 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $150,999 Back on Market 57 DOM
7. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-22
   price $156,999
9. 2026-04-21
   price $169,399
10. 2026-03-24
    price $176,999
11. 2026-03-03
    listed $175,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$2,265
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable income: $516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$124
• After-tax cash flow: $2,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value include painting the exterior siding, landscaping improvements, and updating the kitchen appliances and bathroom fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can attract more buyers
• Resale Flooring — Hardwood floors can increase property value
• Resale Painting interior walls — Neutral paint can attract more buyers
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Flooring — Hardwood floors can increase property value ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls — Neutral paint can attract more buyers ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Floresville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819350
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,736
• Composite: 30.44/100
• National rank: #6234
• State rank: #504 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elmendorf

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1189
• US rank: #20804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,476
• Household income: $66,362
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 26% White 19% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.18%
• Current HPI: 278.8429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $156,999 LERA
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $169,399 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $176,999 LERA
• 2026-03-03 Listed $175,999 LERA