Winfield Plan · Lenox, MI 48048

$72,900

3 bd · 56.0 ba · 1 sqft · Manufactured · 553 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 553 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/56.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Haven Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #305 of 540 in MI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $64,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.03%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $31,576
• Equity at exit: $10,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $83,428
• Equity at exit: $6,303

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48048

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $638

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32631 Cary Ln N New Haven, MI	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,339	$1.27	1d	1	0.18mi
58701 Meadow Creek Blvd New Haven, MI	2.0	2.0	—	$1,500	—	1d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,900 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,900 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,900 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,900 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,900 Active 548 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,900 Active 544 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,900 Active 543 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,900 Active 542 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $72,900 Active 539 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,900 Active 538 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,900 Active 537 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,900 Active 536 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,900 Active 535 DOM
14. 2024-12-13
    listed $72,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable income: $7,454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,789
• After-tax cash flow: $6,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations across all systems and areas, making it a significant investment. However, with proper updates, it can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No kitchen photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.
• Major Bathrooms — No bathroom photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant bathroom renovations.
• Major Roof — No roof photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant roof renovations.
• Major Exterior — No exterior photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant exterior renovations.
• Major Flooring — No flooring photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant flooring renovations.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant interior wall/paint renovations.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant HVAC/mechanical renovations.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant landscaping/curb appeal renovations.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Up-to-date bathrooms are essential for attracting buyers.
• Resale Roof replacement — A new roof is a major selling point and can add significant value.
• Resale Exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior can make the home more attractive and increase its value.
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring can enhance the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale Interior wall/paint — Fresh paint and updated walls can make the home more appealing to buyers.
• Resale HVAC system upgrade — A modern HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value.
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No kitchen photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No bathroom photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant bathroom renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No roof photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant roof renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No exterior photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant exterior renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No flooring photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant flooring renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant interior wall/paint renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant HVAC/mechanical renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant landscaping/curb appeal renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Up-to-date bathrooms are essential for attracting buyers. ↑
• Resale Roof replacement — A new roof is a major selling point and can add significant value. ↑
• Resale Exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior can make the home more attractive and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring can enhance the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Interior wall/paint — Fresh paint and updated walls can make the home more appealing to buyers. ↑
• Resale HVAC system upgrade — A modern HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,247
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6575
• State rank: #305 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lenox

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, MI
• Population (ZIP): 11,065

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.74%
• Current HPI: 242.3675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Listed $72,900 Zillow