16510 Winchester Ave · Markham, IL 60428

$71,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,051 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1959 5,662 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the Market and Ready for a Fresh Start! This adorable split-level home is getting a second chance to make a first impression-and for buyers with vision, that can be a very good thing. Coming back to the market ready for a new owner to bring fresh ideas, updates, and repairs to unlock its full potential. Whether you're an owner-occupant looking to create a home that reflects your personal style or an investor seeking your next renovation project, this property offers an opportunity to build value through thoughtful improvements. Inside, you'll find the functional layout that has made split-level homes a lasting favorite, providing distinct living spaces and flexibility for a variety

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Convenient access
• Split level home

Tags

• SPLIT LEVEL HOME
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• LANDSCAPING ENHANCEMENTS
• CURB APPEAL IMPROVEMENTS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $71k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $71k).
• Cap rate 29.1% vs local median 10.1% in Markham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#186 in IL, #3,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, employment D.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($491 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $71k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $71,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.33%
• DSCR: 4.62
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,987
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16444 Wolcott Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+3%)	3mo	$112,500	$104	82
16628 Winchester Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,134 (+8%)	1mo	$84,000	$74	79
16300 Winchester Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (-4%)	2mo	$97,500	$96	75
16735 Dixie Hwy	0.33mi	2/1.0	965 (-8%)	1mo	$153,000	$159	70
16221 Hermitage Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,044 (-1%)	1mo	$192,000	$184	70
16738 Crane Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,059 (+1%)	2mo	$147,000	$139	70
1924 169th St	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,086 (+3%)	3mo	$189,900	$175	70
16784 Crane Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,059 (+1%)	2mo	$155,000	$146	68
16807 Wood St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	985 (-6%)	0mo	$90,000	$91	64
16784 Trapet Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (-8%)	1mo	$96,000	$99	62
1945 W 163rd St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+13%)	4mo	$159,500	$134	58
16727 Head Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,150 (+9%)	1mo	$157,000	$137	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $124,496
• Equity at exit: $63,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.0%
• Equity multiple: 16.05×
• Total profit: $299,154
• Equity at exit: $137,937

Cash invested: $19,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60428

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$372
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $587/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $1,347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $71,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,388	-5% $1,368	+0% $1,347	+5% $1,327	+10% $1,307
Rent	-10% $1,168	-5% $1,258	+0% $1,347	+5% $1,437	+10% $1,527
Rate	-1.0pp $1,383	-0.5pp $1,365	base $1,347	+0.5pp $1,329	+1.0pp $1,310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,750
• Closing costs: $2,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	0.47mi
16125 Marshfield Ave Markham, IL	3.0	1.0	1043	$2,400	$2.30	0d	1	0.62mi
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	0d	1	0.68mi
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	0d	1	0.75mi
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	0d	1	0.80mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	0d	1	0.82mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,300	$1.96	0d	1	1.42mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,500	$2.13	18d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $71,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $71,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $71,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $71,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $71,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $71,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on marketlisting id $71,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
10. 2026-03-20
    listed $71,000 Active
11. 1977-04-22
    soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,099 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$512/yr (+$43/mo · 87.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,977
• − Property taxes: −$587
• − Insurance: −$355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − Depreciation: −$2,065
• Taxable income: $15,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,830
• After-tax cash flow: $12,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Markham

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #3539

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, IL
• City population: 10,980
• Population (ZIP): 10,980

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 11% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 302.333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+215.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $71,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1977-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $587 · -91.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.