502 Forest Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$254,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1975 0.45 ac lot $220/sqft · at area comps Est $254k · at est. $250/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked among the trees in the gated Hemlock Farms community, this home blends rustic character with modern comfort. The exterior's warm wood tones, screened-in porch, and elevated deck create easy indoor-outdoor living, whether you're enjoying quiet mornings or unwinding after a day on the lake. Inside, the main living area is bright and open, featuring wood-style flooring, a brick fireplace with a mounted TV, and large windows that frame the natural surroundings. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, solid cabinetry, and a functional layout that connects smoothly to the dining and living spaces, making the home well-suited for everyday use or hosting guests. Two bedrooms are located on the main level along with a full bath. The primary bedroom is located on the second floor and includes its own private bathroom, giving it a separate, private feel within the home. Additional conveniences include a dedicated laundry room, ample storage, and a mix of hardwood, tile, and carpeted areas that define each room with warmth and practicality. Outdoor living is a highlight here. The screened porch overlooks the wooded landscape and the driveway below, offering a peaceful spot to enjoy the seasons without leaving the comfort of home. Hemlock Farms adds even more value with its lakes, pools, fitness center, security, hiking trails, and community amenities that make this property appealing as a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $970 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $254k).
• Recommended offer: $239k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 6.9% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack South El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 255 students, 72% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $254k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,760 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.36%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,629
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: 0.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
806 Rimrock Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,142 (-1%)	4mo	$300,000	$263	86
404 Forest Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,085 (-6%)	6mo	$270,000	$249	66
111 Blueridge Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+2%)	9mo	$215,000	$183	65
107 Ridgeway Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,083 (-6%)	11mo	$257,500	$238	65
800 Bluestone Ct N Unit 800 Bluestone Court North	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,202 (+4%)	1mo	$276,000	$230	64
103 Saddlebrook Ln	0.31mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,222 (+6%)	8mo	$210,000	$172	62
807 Rimrock Ct	0.27mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	17mo	$225,000	$208	56
104 Longspur Ln	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-6%)	18mo	$295,000	$273	54
138 Long Ridge Dr	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	21mo	$240,000	$208	52
104 Ironwood Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,032 (-10%)	14mo	$260,000	$252	44
603 Forest Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,276 (+11%)	12mo	$269,000	$211	42
108 Blue Shelf Ln	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+4%)	18mo	$225,000	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $200,240
• Equity at exit: $228,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.61×
• Total profit: $541,372
• Equity at exit: $493,466

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,422/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$760
• Net cashflow: $970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,392

Max offer price $254,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,114	-5% $1,042	+0% $970	+5% $898	+10% $826
Rent	-10% $684	-5% $827	+0% $970	+5% $1,113	+10% $1,256
Rate	-1.0pp $1,098	-0.5pp $1,034	base $970	+0.5pp $904	+1.0pp $837

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Forest Dr Blooming Grove, PA	3.0	2.0	1200	$4,600	$3.83	0d	1	0.59mi
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	0d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $254,000 Active 1464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1464 chars)

    Tucked among the trees in the gated Hemlock Farms community, this home blends rustic character with modern comfort. The exterior's warm wood tones, screened-in porch, and elevated deck create easy indoor-outdoor living, whether you're enjoying quiet mornings or unwinding after a day on the lake. Inside, the main living area is bright and open, featuring wood-style flooring, a brick fireplace with a mounted TV, and large windows that frame the natural surroundings. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, solid cabinetry, and a functional layout that connects smoothly to the dining and living spaces, making the home well-suited for everyday use or hosting guests. Two bedrooms are located on the main level along with a full bath. The primary bedroom is located on the second floor and includes its own private bathroom, giving it a separate, private feel within the home. Additional conveniences include a dedicated laundry room, ample storage, and a mix of hardwood, tile, and carpeted areas that define each room with warmth and practicality. Outdoor living is a highlight here. The screened porch overlooks the wooded landscape and the driveway below, offering a peaceful spot to enjoy the seasons without leaving the comfort of home. Hemlock Farms adds even more value with its lakes, pools, fitness center, security, hiking trails, and community amenities that make this property appealing as a full-time residence, vacation home, or investment.

17. 2025-12-18
    historical $2,100
18. 2025-08-14
    listed $2,100
19. 2024-08-31
    historical $2,000
20. 2024-06-08
    listed $2,000
21. 2016-04-14
    soldstatus $94,000
22. 2016-04-05
    soldstatus $94,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Unique Location! Walk to the Pool, Camp & Playground! This Renovated 2-Story Home Has it ALL! Living Room with Brick-Faced Fireplace, Eat-in-Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, Master Suite, Huge Screened Porched for your Entertainment, Deck, Fenced Yard and Playground. Don't Miss It! Owner Financing Available. , Beds Description: 1 BED 2nd, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Beds Description: 1 BED 2nd, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2

23. 2016-01-16
    listed $99,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Unique Location! Walk to the Pool, Camp & Playground! This Renovated 2-Story Home Has it ALL! Living Room with Brick-Faced Fireplace, Eat-in-Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, Master Suite, Huge Screened Porched for your Entertainment, Deck, Fenced Yard and Playground. Don't Miss It! Owner Financing Available. , Beds Description: 1 BED 2nd, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Beds Description: 1 BED 2nd, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2

24. 2015-03-30
    soldstatus $40,000
25. 2015-03-30
    soldstatus $40,000
26. 2014-12-01
    listed $44,000
27. 2014-10-09
    listed $44,000
28. 2014-10-09
    listed $51,000
29. 2004-12-02
    soldstatus $146,370

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$796/yr (+$66/mo · 32.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$2,422
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,475
• − Management: −$3,475
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable income: $8,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $9,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+73.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $254,000 PWMLS
• 2025-12-18 Rental Removed $2,100 PWMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed for Rent $2,100 PWMLS
• 2024-08-31 Rental Removed $2,000 PWMLS
• 2024-06-08 Listed for Rent $2,000 PWMLS
• 2016-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-05 Sold (MLS) $94,000 PWMLS
• 2016-01-16 Listed $99,000 PWMLS
• 2015-03-30 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PMAR
• 2015-03-30 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PWMLS
• 2014-12-01 Listed $44,000 PMAR
• 2014-10-09 Listed $51,000 PMAR
• 2014-10-09 Listed $44,000 PWMLS
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $146,370 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,422 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.