8 Willow Ln · Old Greenwich, CT 06870

$1,925,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1962 7,840 sqft lot Est $2282k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.93M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.60M (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.26M (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.26M (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#108 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Old Greenwich School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #28 of 553 statewide, top 7%, 406 students, 2% FRL); Eastern Middle School (math 75% / reading 81%, grade A+, #2 of 175 statewide, top 1%, 784 students, 6% FRL); Greenwich High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 2,668 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,576/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($250k/yr) (locally 143% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $194k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $181k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$312k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,257,555 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,282,256
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Willow Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,944 (0%)	1mo	$2,410,000	$1,240	99
7 Highview Ave	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,832 (-6%)	5mo	$2,503,000	$1,366	68
9 Oak Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,891 (-3%)	13mo	$3,100,000	$1,639	63
18 Mortimer Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+13%)	13mo	$2,650,000	$1,205	60
52 Shore Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,916 (-1%)	18mo	$5,550,000	$2,897	53
7 Tait Rd	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,831 (-6%)	14mo	$1,250,000	$683	52
6 Willow Ln	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,230 (+15%)	23mo	$2,475,000	$1,110	51
1 Webb Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (-7%)	11mo	$1,818,000	$1,006	51
137 Shore Rd	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,214 (+14%)	6mo	$2,600,000	$1,174	42
137 Sound Beach Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,724 (-11%)	15mo	$1,900,000	$1,102	39
9 Fairfield Ave	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,686 (-13%)	11mo	$1,850,000	$1,097	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $850,233
• Equity at exit: $1,649,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $2,576,287
• Equity at exit: $3,470,123

Cash invested: $539,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06870

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,095
• Tax from tax record: −$884 /mo · $10,613/yr
• Insurance: −$802
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,641
• Net cashflow: $-1,847

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,913

Max offer price $1,598,768

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-757	-5% $-1,302	+0% $-1,847	+5% $-2,392	+10% $-2,936
Rent	-10% $-2,840	-5% $-2,343	+0% $-1,847	+5% $-1,350	+10% $-853
Rate	-1.0pp $-877	-0.5pp $-1,357	base $-1,847	+0.5pp $-2,346	+1.0pp $-2,853

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $481,250
• Closing costs: $57,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Benjamin St Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	1.5	1462	$8,500	$5.81	21d	1	0.33mi
25 Weston Hill Rd Riverside, CT	3.0	3.0	2531	$10,950	$4.33	5d	1	0.37mi
14 Shoalpoint Ln Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	2340	$14,000	$5.98	25d	1	0.38mi
4 Highview Ave Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	2.0	1542	$10,000	$6.49	21d	1	0.41mi
6 Irvine Rd Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	3.0	2066	$12,500	$6.05	5d	1	0.41mi
143 Sound Beach Ave Old Greenwich, CT	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1269	$12,985	$10.23	0d	1	0.46mi
8 Potter Dr Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.0	1979	$10,500	$5.31	46d	1	0.50mi
51 Forest Ave #19 Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	2.5	1946	$8,500	$4.37	45d	1	0.56mi
51 Forest Ave Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	3.0	1737	$8,150	$4.69	5d	2	0.56mi
51 Forest Ave #26 Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	3.0	2194	$9,500	$4.33	4d	1	0.56mi
124 Shore Rd Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	2.5	1704	$13,500	$7.92	12d	1	0.58mi
17 Ballwood Rd Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	2.0	2067	$10,500	$5.08	23d	1	0.63mi
16 Burwood Ave Unit 2 Stamford, CT	3.0	2.0	1653	$3,999	$2.42	16d	1	0.87mi
25 Center Dr Old Greenwich, CT	3.0	2.0	1616	$8,950	$5.54	23d	1	0.97mi
30 Noble St Stamford, CT	3.0	1.5	1304	$5,500	$4.22	5d	1	1.00mi
187 Dolphin Cove Quay Stamford, CT	4.0	3.5	2510	$13,000	$5.18	45d	1	1.03mi
92 Burwood Ave Unit 2 Stamford, CT	3.0	1.5	1800	$4,300	$2.39	5d	1	1.04mi
34 Keith St Unit 2 Stamford, CT	3.0	1.0	1550	$3,550	$2.29	45d	1	1.04mi
87 Dolphin Cove Quay Stamford, CT	4.0	3.0	2115	$14,000	$6.62	16d	1	1.08mi
10 Miltiades Ave Riverside, CT	3.0	2.0	1477	$7,600	$5.15	16d	1	1.15mi
1 Ernel Dr Riverside, CT	5.0	3.5	2517	$13,000	$5.16	23d	1	1.28mi
30 Mary Ln Riverside, CT	3.0	1.5	1255	$6,200	$4.94	16d	1	1.36mi
45 N Sound Beach Ave Riverside, CT	3.0	2.0	1344	$9,500	$7.07	25d	1	1.37mi
38 Sheephill Rd Riverside, CT	3.0	2.5	2600	$8,200	$3.15	45d	1	1.39mi
45 Thornhill Rd Riverside, CT	3.0	2.0	1386	$6,500	$4.69	25d	1	1.46mi
3 River Rd Unit 3 Cos Cob, CT	3.0	1.0	1500	$3,150	$2.10	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-15
   soldstatus $2,410,000 Closed 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

2. 2026-04-02
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

3. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $1,925,000 Active 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

5. 2026-03-26
   listed $1,925,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

6. 2026-03-24
   historical $1,925,000

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

7. 2026-03-24
   historical $1,925,000 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Nestled at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwich Village, this beautifully renovated four-bedroom home is close to schools, train and Old Greenwich Point. The open-concept family room and kitchen create a welcoming space that flows seamlessly to a sunny deck and a lush garden, perfect for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. First floor primary suite plus an additional three double bedrooms on second floor. Lower-level finished office space not included in total square feet. Move right in to this prime location and enjoy all that Old Greenwich has to offer. House is not in an AE flood zone.

8. 2024-06-17
   historical $9,700
9. 2024-06-14
   listed $9,700
10. 2021-07-02
    historical Cancelled
11. 2021-06-18
    listed $1,695,000 Active
12. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $1,225,000 Closed
13. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $1,225,000
14. 2018-11-09
    status Pending
15. 2018-10-12
    historical Contingent Contract
16. 2018-09-18
    listed $1,150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,613 · $884/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $25,904 · $2,159/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,291/yr (+$1,274/mo · 144.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $150,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$107,830
• − Property taxes: −$10,613
• − Insurance: −$9,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,073
• − Management: −$12,073
• − Depreciation: −$56,000
• Taxable loss: −$57,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,754
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwich School District
• NCES district ID: 0901710
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $129,257
• Composite: 65.67/100
• National rank: #461
• State rank: #12 of 153 in CT

Livability — Old Greenwich

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #9415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Greenwich, CT
• County: Fairfield County · 765,532 people
• City population: 7,903
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• Population (ZIP): 7,864
• Household income: $250,001
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 143.0

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.39%
• Current HPI: 205.9983
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+109.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Sold (MLS) $2,410,000 GMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — GMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $1,925,000 GMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $1,925,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-24 Coming Soon $1,925,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-24 Coming Soon $1,925,000 GMLS
• 2024-06-17 Rental Removed $9,700 GMLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed for Rent $9,700 GMLS
• 2021-07-02 Delisted — GMLS
• 2021-06-18 Listed $1,695,000 GMLS
• 2018-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,225,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-29 Sold (MLS) $1,225,000 GMLS
• 2018-11-09 Pending — GMLS
• 2018-10-12 Contingent — GMLS
• 2018-09-18 Listed $1,150,000 GMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $10,613 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.