251 SE 82nd Pl · Ocala, FL
Flood risk 9/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.3/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +3.6/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +3.2/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$112,667
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Charming and affordable mobile home situated on a spacious . 26-acre lot located in Ocala, FL. This split-bedroom floor plan offers a dining area off the kitchen, creating a comfortable and functional living space. While the home has a dated feel, everything is in working condition. Major updates include a Roof and A/C that are only 3 years old, plus the well is equipped with a water softener system. Outside, enjoy the privacy and peaceful setting with plenty of room to spread out. The property also features a new 8x8 shed and a carport with a new canopy. Conveniently located approximately 40 minutes from World Equestrian Center, Horse Capitol of the World and about 50 minutes to Orlando. N
Key facts
- Dining area
- Spacious lot
- Privacy setting
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Lot roughly 0.26 acres (approx. 100 x 113) on a public maintained limerock road; One well and one septic on property
- HOA & community: Pets allowed
Exterior
- Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
- Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Propane
- Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces south
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a double-wide manufactured home structure
- Exterior features: Deck; Mature landscaping with oak trees
Interior
- Kitchen: Range
- Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
- Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom layout
- Laundry & utility: Laundry inside
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $113k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $113k).
- Recommended offer: $111k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
- Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Shady Hill Elementary School (math 69% / reading 53%, grade B, #653 of 2,144 statewide, top 31%, 643 students, 56% FRL); Vanguard High School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,661 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $779 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.43% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.55%
- Cash-on-cash
- 22.35%
- DSCR
- 1.99
- GRM
- 5.8
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.84% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 11.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.47×
- Total profit
- $14,686
- Equity at exit
- $16,799
- IRR
- 20.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.73×
- Total profit
- $54,498
- Equity at exit
- $9,741
Cash invested: $31,547 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 34480
- Home prices YoY
- -28.7%
- Rents YoY
- 2.8%
- Active inventory
- 344
- Price-to-rent
- 5.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,606 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$591
- Tax from tax record
- −$43 /mo · $518/yr
- Insurance
- −$47
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$337
- Net cashflow
- $521
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $28,167
- Closing costs
- $3,380
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 9 events
-
2026-06-09status $112,667 Pending 23 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $112,667 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $112,667 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $112,667 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $112,667 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $112,667 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $112,667 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $112,667 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-05-16$112,667 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $518 · $43/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $935 · $78/mo
- Expected delta
- +$417/yr (+$35/mo · 80.4%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $19,271
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,311
- − Property taxes
- −$518
- − Insurance
- −$1,361
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,542
- − Management
- −$1,542
- − Depreciation
- −$3,278
- Taxable income
- $4,719
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,133
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,122/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Marion
- NCES district ID
- 1201260
- Math proficiency
- 42% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,015
- Composite
- 35.61/100
- National rank
- #4890
- State rank
- #61 of 73 in FL
Livability — Ocala
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #476
- US rank
- #8461
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Marion County · 315,796 people
- City population
- 263,375
- Metro
- Ocala, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 23,517
- Household income
- $77,557
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 169.0
Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 365,905 people
- By 2030
- 376,768 · +3.0%
- By 2040
- 396,555 · +8.4%
- By 2050
- 412,723 · +12.8%
- By 2075
- 446,090 · +21.9%
- By 2100
- 436,193 · +19.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (73%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Marion
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -85.60%
- Current HPI
- 212.4262
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.84%
- Metro
- Ocala, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-05-16 Listed $112,667 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+6.2%/yrLatest (2025): $518 · +71.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…