14-3473 Mauna Kea Rd · Nanawale Estates, HI 96778

$230,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1979 0.41 ac lot $221/sqft · 11% above area Est $208k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-bedroom/one bathroom home sits on 18,000 square feet of land! Lot size is bigger than its neighbors. There is a bonus room, added without a permit, that is being used as an office or can be an additional bedroom depending on the new owner's use. Lots of potential and possibilities! An above-ground swimming pool sits in the back of the house; currently, it is out of use.

Key facts

• Rare oversized lot
• 0.41 acre lot
• Pool

Tags

• RARE OVERSIZED LOT
• BACKS UP TO BISHOP ESTATE LAND
• FLEXIBLE ATTACHED STUDIO SPACE
• ESTABLISHED FRUIT TREES
• MINUTES FROM PAHOA TOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Not used as a short-term vacation rental

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Catchment water; Cesspool sewer; Other solid waste disposal
• Home design: Single family home; Full ownership
• Construction: Owned solar
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Cleared lot; Dead-end street; Grassy lot; Fairly level topography; Road/Street frontage; Fee simple ownership; Lava zone 2

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Hardwood floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#78 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keonepoko Elementary School (math 8% / reading 24%, grade F, #169 of 183 statewide, top 93%, 562 students, 75% FRL); Pahoa High & Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 723 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hawaii Department Of Education average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 388 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $230k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $180,000 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,968
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 10.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-47,910
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-55,344
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96778

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $205,766

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-88	+0% $-167	+5% $-247	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-239	+0% $-167	+5% $-96	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-109	base $-167	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14-610 Kapoho Cir Pahoa, HI	2.0	1.0	1210	$1,800	$1.49	45d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $230,000 Active 1520-char remark
18. 2026-02-05
    historical
19. 2025-06-12
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2025-02-14
    status Active
21. 2025-02-12
    historical
22. 2025-01-30
    listed $230,000 Active
23. 2021-10-04
    soldstatus $140,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Two-bedroom/one bathroom home sits on 18,000 square feet of land! Lot size is bigger than its neighbors. There is a bonus room, added without a permit, that is being used as an office or can be an additional bedroom depending on the new owner's use. Lots of potential and possibilities! An above-ground swimming pool sits in the back of the house; currently, it is out of use.

24. 2021-08-09
    historical Contingent

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Two-bedroom/one bathroom home sits on 18,000 square feet of land! Lot size is bigger than its neighbors. There is a bonus room, added without a permit, that is being used as an office or can be an additional bedroom depending on the new owner's use. Lots of potential and possibilities! An above-ground swimming pool sits in the back of the house; currently, it is out of use.

25. 2021-07-18
    price $145,000

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Two-bedroom/one bathroom home sits on 18,000 square feet of land! Lot size is bigger than its neighbors. There is a bonus room, added without a permit, that is being used as an office or can be an additional bedroom depending on the new owner's use. Lots of potential and possibilities! An above-ground swimming pool sits in the back of the house; currently, it is out of use.

26. 2021-07-01
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Two-bedroom/one bathroom home sits on 18,000 square feet of land! Lot size is bigger than its neighbors. There is a bonus room, added without a permit, that is being used as an office or can be an additional bedroom depending on the new owner's use. Lots of potential and possibilities! An above-ground swimming pool sits in the back of the house; currently, it is out of use.

27. 2006-08-04
    soldstatus $150,000
28. 2006-06-28
    listed $159,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$6,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Nanawale Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #17834

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nanawale Estates, HI
• Population (ZIP): 14,225

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Two or more races 30% Hispanic / Latino 15% Pacific Islander 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.52%
• Current HPI: 173.8168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+44.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $230,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2025-06-12 Contingent — HI Information Service
• 2025-02-14 Relisted — HI Information Service
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2025-01-30 Listed $230,000 HI Information Service
• 2021-10-04 Sold (MLS) $140,000 HI Information Service
• 2021-08-09 Contingent — HI Information Service
• 2021-07-18 Price Changed $145,000 HI Information Service
• 2021-07-01 Listed $150,000 HI Information Service
• 2006-08-04 Sold (MLS) $150,000 HI Information Service
• 2006-06-28 Listed $159,000 HI Information Service