Newlin Plan · Cleburne, TX 76031

$220,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 509 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $220,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $241,915.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 409 students, 91% FRL); Lowell Smith Jr Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 929 students, 68% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 481 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 509 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,622 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 509 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,915
• List price: $220,999
• Delta: -4.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
937 Prestonwood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	1mo	$232,999	$153	93
1209 Finch Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	3mo	$240,999	$158	87
1949 Autumn Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	6mo	$243,499	$160	86
988 Prestonwood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	10mo	$244,849	$161	85
985 Prestonwood Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	10mo	$238,599	$157	84
1937 Autumn Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	10mo	$245,849	$162	84
1204 Honeysuckle Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-2%)	8mo	$319,900	$213	73
1225 Finch Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-14%)	1mo	$230,449	$177	64
1945 Autumn Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	6mo	$253,399	$147	60
501 S Old Betsy Rd #7	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-3%)	3mo	$245,000	$165	60
965 Prestonwood Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	6mo	$259,399	$151	60
501 S Old Betsy Rd #28	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,633 (+7%)	6mo	$255,900	$157	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-53,262
• Equity at exit: $36,070

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-64,408
• Equity at exit: $20,916

Cash invested: $67,736 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,749 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 12 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,629/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,116

Max offer price $209,906

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-138	+0% $-221	+5% $-305	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-294	+0% $-221	+5% $-149	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-160	base $-221	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,479
• Closing costs: $7,257
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
961 Prestonwood Ln Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,245	$1.28	139d	1	0.20mi
1105 Ledgestone Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$2,000	$1.32	0d	1	0.23mi
907 Melanie Ln Keene, TX	4.0	3.0	1901	$2,250	$1.18	0d	1	0.67mi
107 Bluebonnet Trl Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,800	$0.95	9d	1	0.78mi
204 Woodlawn Dr Keene, TX	4.0	3.0	1960	$1,950	$0.99	54d	1	0.82mi
15 Blue Star Dr #15 Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$895	$0.84	65d	1	0.88mi
27 Blue Star Dr #27 Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$925	$0.87	139d	1	0.92mi
208 W Val Verde Cir Unit A Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,650	$1.10	0d	1	0.98mi
804 Alaska St Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,325	$1.25	0d	2	1.13mi
204 Pine St Keene, TX	3.0	1.5	1196	$1,600	$1.34	26d	1	1.41mi
107 Pine St Keene, TX	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,695	$1.20	6d	1	1.46mi
101 Pine St Keene, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,400	$1.06	111d	1	1.48mi
303 Pecan St Apt F Keene, TX	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,200	$1.03	11d	1	1.48mi
303 Pecan St Unit A Keene, TX	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,225	$1.05	88d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $220,999 Active 509 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $220,999 Active 508 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $220,999 Active 507 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $220,999 Active 506 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   pricedays on market $220,999 Active 505 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $230,999 Active 504 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $230,999 Active 503 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $230,999 Active 502 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $230,999 Active 500 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $230,999 Active 499 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $230,999 Active 498 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $230,999 Active 497 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $230,999 Active 491 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $230,999 Active 490 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $230,999 Active 488 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $230,999 Active 486 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $230,999 Active 485 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $230,999 Active 484 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $230,999 Active 483 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $230,999 Active 482 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $230,999 Active 481 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $235,999 Active 480 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $235,999 Active 479 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $235,999 Active 478 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $235,999 Active 477 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $235,999 Active 476 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $235,999 Active 475 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $235,999 Active 474 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $235,999 Active 473 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $235,999 Active 472 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $235,999 Active 471 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $235,999 Active 470 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $235,999 Active 469 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $235,999 Active 468 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $235,999 Active 467 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $235,999 Active 466 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $235,999 Active 465 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $235,999 Active 464 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $235,999 Active 463 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $235,999 Active 461 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $235,999 Active 460 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $235,999 Active 459 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $235,999 Active 458 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $235,999 Active 455 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $235,999 Active 453 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $235,999 Active 452 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $235,999 Active 450 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,999 Active 448 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,999 Active 447 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,999 Active 446 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,551
• − Property taxes: −$3,629
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$7,038
• Taxable loss: −$6,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $-994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters. Consider enhancing the landscaping and interior paint to further boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern, boosting both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the space more functional and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can improve the overall aesthetic and functionality of the space, increasing its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Santa Fe El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Ad Wheat Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Cleburne H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,697
• Household income: $70,672
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

---

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $250,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $248,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Listed $246,999 Zillow