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10607 Dogwood Sky Dr 🏗️ New Construction
D+ Composite 49.65
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +15.2/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Appreciation +7.1/10.0
  • DSCR +4.7/10.0
  • 1% rule +4.5/10.0
  • Schools +3.3/10.0
  • Livability +2.9/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.0/5.0

$239,990

10607 Dogwood Sky Dr · Beasley, TX 77417
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market
Built 2026 Fair condition 2-car garage $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Emma floor plan is a versatile 1,635 sq ft single-story home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a welcoming front porch that opens into a bright foyer, leading to an open-concept kitchen equipped with a center island, pantry, and convenient access to the dining and family rooms-perfect for daily living and entertaining. This thoughtful layout includes four bedrooms, offering ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Bedroom 1 serves as a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and direct access to a full bath, while Bedrooms 2, 3, and 4 are situated near the second bath for added convenience. A centrally located utility room adds everyday practicality. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

Key facts

  • Ample counter space
  • Open dining area
  • Spacious kitchen

Tags

INVITING ENTRYWAYCENTRALLY LOCATED FAMILY ROOMOPEN DINING AREASPACIOUS KITCHENCENTER ISLANDAMPLE COUNTER SPACE

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,626.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($495/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
  • Recommended offer: $233k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
  • Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
  • By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $232,790 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
  3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.95%
Cap rate
6.71%
Cash-on-cash
1.49%
DSCR
1.07
GRM
8.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$310,626
List price
$239,990
Delta
-17.91%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
10715 Dogwood Sky Dr 0.12mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,595 (-2%) 1mo $259,990 $163 85
10710 Sage Bend Dr 0.15mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,595 (-2%) 3mo $274,990 $172 82
10723 Dogwood Sky Dr 0.14mi 4/2.0 1,778 (+9%) 2mo $284,990 $160 78
907 Heaven Dr 0.37mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,627 (-0%) 1mo $270,000 $166 76
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr 0.17mi 4/2.0 1,778 (+9%) 2mo $289,990 $163 76
10402 Rocky Trl 0.52mi 4/2.0 1,644 (+1%) 0mo $251,990 $153 75
622 Heaven Dr 0.19mi 4/2.0 1,796 (+10%) 0mo $289,990 $161 74
1018 Garnet Rain Dr 0.45mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,593 (-3%) 1mo $254,990 $160 69
10411 Birds Nest Dr 0.60mi 4/2.0 1,670 (+2%) 2mo $256,990 $154 67
1006 Blue Stone Dr 0.42mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,535 (-6%) 2mo $264,990 $173 64
1110 Garnet Rain Dr 0.51mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,535 (-6%) 0mo $246,990 $161 61
10803 Hickory Ln 0.52mi 4/2.0 1,778 (+9%) 3mo $309,900 $174 58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
11.2%
Equity multiple
1.68×
Total profit
$59,559
Equity at exit
$160,283
10-year hold
IRR
12.8%
Equity multiple
3.14×
Total profit
$185,821
Equity at exit
$264,406

Cash invested: $86,975 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
79 active · 24 under contract
Months of supply
15.3 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$285,990 ($168/sqft)
Median days on market
60 d
This list price
1% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+13.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

Home prices YoY
1.2%
Active inventory
273
Price-to-rent
6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,965 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,629
Tax est. 1.5%
$388 /mo · $4,659/yr
Insurance
$129
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$88
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$623
Net cashflow
$41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913
Max offer price $310,626
Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $256 -5% $149 +0% $41 +5% $-66 +10% $-173
Rent -10% $-193 -5% $-76 +0% $41 +5% $158 +10% $275
Rate -1.0pp $198 -0.5pp $120 base $41 +0.5pp $-39 +1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$77,657
Closing costs
$9,319
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1869 $2,965 $1.59 0d 1 0.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Emberly Homeowner AssociationCommunity amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, and poolAssociation fee collected annually

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Construction
Stone exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Built by D.R. Horton
Exterior features
Covered patioDeckPatioFence (back yard)Private yard

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalENERGY STAR qualified appliancesKitchen islandWalk-in pantrySolid surface counters
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom (First floor) — approx. 12 x 14Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 10Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 10Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 10
Flooring
CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Double vanityEntrance foyerKitchen islandSolid surface countersWalk-in pantryKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostat
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

HOA detail $88/mo · $1,056/yr

Likely covers
waterpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $239,990 Active 60 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $239,990 Active 58 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $239,990 Active 57 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $239,990 Active 56 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 55 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 52 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 50 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 49 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 47 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 45 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 44 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    price $244,990 Active 43 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 43 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $252,990 Active 42 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $252,990 Active 41 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $252,990 Active 39 DOM
    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    The Emma floor plan is a versatile 1,635 sq ft single-story home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a welcoming front porch that opens into a bright foyer, leading to an open-concept kitchen equipped with a center island, pantry, and convenient access to the dining and family rooms-perfect for daily living and entertaining. This thoughtful layout includes four bedrooms, offering ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Bedroom 1 serves as a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and direct access to a full bath, while Bedrooms 2, 3, and 4 are situated near the second bath for added convenience. A centrally located utility room adds everyday practicality. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $252,990 Active 38 DOM
    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    The Emma floor plan is a versatile 1,635 sq ft single-story home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a welcoming front porch that opens into a bright foyer, leading to an open-concept kitchen equipped with a center island, pantry, and convenient access to the dining and family rooms-perfect for daily living and entertaining. This thoughtful layout includes four bedrooms, offering ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Bedroom 1 serves as a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and direct access to a full bath, while Bedrooms 2, 3, and 4 are situated near the second bath for added convenience. A centrally located utility room adds everyday practicality. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $252,990 Active 37 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $252,990 Active 36 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 35 DOM
    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    The Emma floor plan is a versatile 1,635 sq ft single-story home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a welcoming front porch that opens into a bright foyer, leading to an open-concept kitchen equipped with a center island, pantry, and convenient access to the dining and family rooms-perfect for daily living and entertaining. This thoughtful layout includes four bedrooms, offering ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Bedroom 1 serves as a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and direct access to a full bath, while Bedrooms 2, 3, and 4 are situated near the second bath for added convenience. A centrally located utility room adds everyday practicality. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 34 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 33 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $249,990 Active 32 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $249,990 Active 31 DOM
  25. 2026-07-10
    price $249,990 Active 30 DOM
  26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $251,990 Active 30 DOM
  27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $251,990 Active 28 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $251,990 Active 27 DOM
  29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $251,990 Active 26 DOM
  30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $251,990 Active 25 DOM
  31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $251,990 Active 24 DOM
  32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 23 DOM
  33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $251,990 Active 22 DOM
  34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $251,990 Active 21 DOM
  35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $251,990 Active 20 DOM
  36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 19 DOM
  37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $251,990 Active 18 DOM
  38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $251,990 Active 17 DOM
  39. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $251,990 Active 15 DOM
  40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 13 DOM
  41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 12 DOM
  42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 9 DOM
  43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $254,990 Active 8 DOM
  44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 7 DOM
  45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 6 DOM
  46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 4 DOM
  47. 2026-06-10
    days on marketlisting id $254,990 Active 1 DOM
  48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 25 DOM
  49. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $254,990 Active 24 DOM
  50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,580
− Mortgage interest
−$17,400
− Property taxes
−$4,659
− Insurance
−$2,351
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,846
− Management
−$2,846
− HOA
−$1,056
− Depreciation
−$9,036
Taxable loss
−$4,615
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,108
After-tax cash flow
$1,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $40,875–$73,575 screening

The property requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including painting, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

  • Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details
  • Major interior walls — No interior photos provided

Value-add opportunities

  • Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both interior painting — Improves interior aesthetics and value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle George J H F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High B F Terry H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Lamar CISD
NCES district ID
4826580
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$75,213
Composite
46.43/100
National rank
#2452
State rank
#116 of 826 in TX
D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

Score
57/100
State rank
#1273
US rank
#22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
Metro
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
Population (ZIP)
3,232
Household income
$60,809
Rent vs Own
32.2% rent · 67.8% own
Severe rent burden
8% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,004,526 people
By 2030
1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040
1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050
1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075
2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100
2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 54%
Common ancestry
Italian 2% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
3% · Canada
Languages at home
76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-14.9% since first listed
12 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-22 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-21 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-18 Price Changed $252,990 Zillow
  • 2026-07-15 Price Changed $252,990 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-14 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
  • 2026-07-09 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
  • 2026-06-23 Price Changed $251,990 HARMLS
  • 2026-06-09 Listed $254,990 HARMLS
  • 2026-06-06 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
  • 2026-06-05 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
  • 2026-05-22 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
  • 2026-05-14 Listed $287,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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