Is 10607 Dogwood Sky Dr in Beasley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.0% cap rate and $-386/mo modeled cash flow at a $244,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 10607 Dogwood Sky Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,366/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 37.96

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.9/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Appreciation +7.1/10.0
Schools +3.3/10.0
Livability +2.9/5.0
1% rule +2.8/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.0/10.0
Condition / age +2.0/5.0

$244,990

10607 Dogwood Sky Dr · Beasley, TX 77417

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition 2-car garage $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Emma floor plan is a versatile 1,635 sq ft single-story home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a welcoming front porch that opens into a bright foyer, leading to an open-concept kitchen equipped with a center island, pantry, and convenient access to the dining and family rooms-perfect for daily living and entertaining. This thoughtful layout includes four bedrooms, offering ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Bedroom 1 serves as a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and direct access to a full bath, while Bedrooms 2, 3, and 4 are situated near the second bath for added convenience. A centrally located utility room adds everyday practicality. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

Key facts

Ample counter space
Open dining area
Spacious kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (3.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,366/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.78% ✗
Cap rate: 5.03%
Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
DSCR: 0.80
GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $303,895
List price: $244,990
Delta: -19.38%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1131 Wildflower Way Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,590 (-3%)	0mo	$279,990	$176	77
10718 Sage Bend Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+9%)	3mo	$271,990	$153	76
1015 Blue Stone Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (-1%)	2mo	$249,990	$155	72
10402 Rocky Trl	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,644 (+1%)	3mo	$251,990	$153	72
622 Heaven Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+10%)	4mo	$289,990	$161	72
1030 Garnet Rain Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (-1%)	3mo	$256,990	$159	69
1018 Garnet Rain Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-3%)	4mo	$254,990	$160	67
1038 Garnet Rain Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-3%)	2mo	$249,990	$157	67
1031 Pecan Harvest Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+9%)	2mo	$304,990	$172	63
10902 Bonfire Trl	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,794 (+10%)	2mo	$260,000	$145	63
1110 Garnet Rain Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-6%)	3mo	$246,990	$161	58
1030 Arbor Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,841 (+13%)	2mo	$294,990	$160	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 5.9%
Equity multiple: 1.37×
Total profit: $31,133
Equity at exit: $156,809

10-year hold

IRR: 8.5%
Equity multiple: 2.45×
Total profit: $123,207
Equity at exit: $258,676

Cash invested: $85,091 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 79 active · 40 under contract
Months of supply: 20.6 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $286,990 ($169/sqft)
Median days on market: 110 d
This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +9.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

Home prices YoY: 1.2%
Active inventory: 316
Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,366 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,558/yr
Insurance: −$127
Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA: −$88
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
Net cashflow: $-386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,854

Max offer price $248,093

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-281	+0% $-386	+5% $-491	+10% $-596
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-479	+0% $-386	+5% $-292	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-233	-0.5pp $-308	base $-386	+0.5pp $-464	+1.0pp $-544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $75,974
Closing costs: $9,117
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10643 Dogwood Sky Dr Beasley, TX	4.0	2.5	2233	$2,200	$0.99	0d	1	0.10mi
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$3,065	$1.64	0d	1	0.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner AssociationCommunity amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, and poolAssociation fee collected annually

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Construction: Stone exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Built by D.R. Horton
Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioFence (back yard)Private yard

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalENERGY STAR qualified appliancesKitchen islandWalk-in pantrySolid surface counters
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — approx. 12 x 14Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 10Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 10Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 10
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Double vanityEntrance foyerKitchen islandSolid surface countersWalk-in pantryKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostat
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

HOA detail $88/mo · $1,056/yr

Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $244,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $244,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-11-07

pricestatus $244,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 150 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 149 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 148 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 146 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 145 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 144 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 143 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 142 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 141 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 140 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 139 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 138 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 137 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 136 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 135 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 130 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 129 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 128 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 127 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 126 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 125 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 124 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 123 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 122 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 121 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 120 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 119 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 118 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 117 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 116 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 115 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 114 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 113 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 112 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 111 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 110 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 109 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 108 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 107 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 106 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 105 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 104 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 103 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,389
− Mortgage interest: −$17,023
− Property taxes: −$4,558
− Insurance: −$2,317
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
− Management: −$2,271
− HOA: −$1,056
− Depreciation: −$8,841
Taxable loss: −$9,948

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,387
After-tax cash flow: $-2,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $40,875–$73,575 screening

The property requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including painting, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details
Major interior walls — No interior photos provided

Value-add opportunities

Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both interior painting — Improves interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle George J H F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High B F Terry H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lamar CISD
NCES district ID: 4826580
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $75,213
Composite: 46.43/100
National rank: #2452
State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

Score: 57/100
State rank: #1273
US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
Population (ZIP): 3,232
Household income: $60,809
Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
Current HPI: 337.8236
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

2026-07-22 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
2026-07-21 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
2026-07-18 Price Changed $252,990 Zillow
2026-07-15 Price Changed $252,990 HARMLS
2026-07-14 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
2026-07-09 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
2026-06-23 Price Changed $251,990 HARMLS
2026-06-09 Listed $254,990 HARMLS
2026-06-06 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
2026-06-05 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
2026-05-22 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
2026-05-14 Listed $287,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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