14244 Crimson Ave · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$299,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,431 sqft · Townhouse public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2024 1,760 sqft lot Est $288k · at est. $170/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New construction- sold before print

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Private garage
• $170 HOA

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIMARY EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• PRIVATE GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Dog park; Playground; Sidewalks; Cats and dogs allowed
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Inframark); Monthly HOA approximately $170.39; Quarterly association fee and maintenance of structure; Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built by builder
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Flooring throughout
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-107/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,631
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14165 Lilac Sky Ter	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,414 (-1%)	1mo	$295,000	$209	94
14144 Crimson Ave	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,431 (0%)	3mo	$282,500	$197	92
4728 Old Blush St	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,431 (0%)	7mo	$296,000	$207	92
14161 Lilac Sky Ter	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,352 (-6%)	0mo	$295,000	$218	87
14443 Lilac Sky Ter	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-2%)	3mo	$282,800	$201	86
14420 Lilac Sky Ter	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-2%)	4mo	$270,000	$192	86
14431 Lilac Sky Ter	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-6%)	3mo	$267,000	$198	80
14427 Lilac Sky Ter	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-6%)	3mo	$265,000	$197	80
14374 Lilac Sky Ter	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-6%)	4mo	$265,000	$197	80
14435 Lilac Sky Ter	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-6%)	3mo	$275,000	$204	80
14416 Lilac Sky Ter	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-6%)	4mo	$265,000	$197	79
13823 Messina Loop #101	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+7%)	5mo	$350,000	$229	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,161
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-81,382
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,938/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$170
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,780

Max offer price $298,322

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $76	+0% $-9	+5% $-94	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-118	+0% $-9	+5% $100	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $67	base $-9	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4740 Old Blush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1431	$2,300	$1.61	25d	1	0.06mi
14051 Crimson Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,500	$1.35	25d	1	0.08mi
14223 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1352	$2,300	$1.70	18d	1	0.08mi
14072 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,290	$1.70	25d	1	0.13mi
14052 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,395	$1.70	18d	1	0.15mi
14423 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,200	$1.63	25d	1	0.20mi
14424 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,500	$1.78	5d	1	0.21mi
14428 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,300	$1.71	23d	1	0.21mi
14440 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,995	$1.48	21d	1	0.22mi
14448 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1352	$2,300	$1.70	25d	1	0.23mi
14452 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,295	$1.63	25d	1	0.24mi
4755 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1678	$4,200	$2.50	18d	1	0.69mi
13725 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,900	$1.90	25d	1	0.82mi
13737 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	25d	2	0.83mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,400	$2.88	21d	1	0.84mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1632	$2,200	$1.35	21d	1	0.84mi
13605 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,450	$2.26	25d	2	0.84mi
13711 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,495	$1.63	25d	1	0.84mi
13732 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,775	$1.82	18d	1	0.84mi
13711 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	18d	1	0.84mi
13703 Messina Loop #102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,750	$1.80	25d	1	0.85mi
13720 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	25d	2	0.85mi
13823 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,950	$1.93	25d	2	0.86mi
13710 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	25d	1	0.88mi
13604 Messina Loop #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$6,000	$3.93	5d	1	0.89mi
12740 Sorrento Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1572	$4,850	$3.09	16d	2	0.93mi
12730 Sorrento Way #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,400	$2.23	25d	1	0.95mi
12730 Sorrento Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	5d	2	0.95mi
4511 Terrazza Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1868	$5,000	$2.68	25d	1	0.96mi
12720 Sorrento Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1572	$3,148	$2.00	25d	2	0.97mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	18d	1	1.03mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	25d	1	1.05mi
12749 Coastal Breeze Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$3,595	$2.04	23d	1	1.11mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	25d	1	1.16mi
12335 Amber Creek Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,350	$1.40	25d	1	1.18mi
12314 Amber Creek Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,350	$1.40	18d	1	1.18mi
12326 Amber Creek Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,300	$1.37	18d	1	1.18mi
12463 Trailhead Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1661	$3,200	$1.93	25d	1	1.18mi
5037 Skyview Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,900	$1.73	25d	1	1.20mi
12447 Trailhead Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,649	$1.51	5d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $170 · $2,040/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,900 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    price $299,900
17. 2026-03-09
    price $304,900
18. 2026-01-22
    listed $309,900 Active
19. 2024-02-27
    soldstatus $336,970 35-char remark

    Show marketing remark (35 chars)

    New construction- sold before print

20. 2024-02-27
    listed $336,970 35-char remark

    Show marketing remark (35 chars)

    New construction- sold before print

21. 2023-09-11
    soldstatus $294,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,938 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,938 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,938
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − HOA: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $1,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Listed $336,970 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Sold (MLS) $336,970 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $294,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+116.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,938 · +197.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.