1627 Wild Horse Ln · Stephenville, TX 76401

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 273 Days on market

Built 1998 0.51 ac lot $95/sqft · 22% below area Est $205k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seeking a home near the university? Investors are welcome! This property already has several updates, including a tankless water heater, custom pantry and laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. The new owner can finish the remaining cosmetic touches to make it their own. Outside, you’ll enjoy a spacious backyard with a fenced-off area—perfect for giving your dog their own space to play. This home is financed FHA, but it has been moved, so we do have a lender that will fund it as a non-conforming loan

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Custom pantry
• Fenced-off area

Tags

• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• CUSTOM PANTRY
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FENCED-OFF AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.2% in Stephenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in TX, #3,840 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Stephenville ISD (town): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #191 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hook El (math 61% / reading 46%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 569 students, 53% FRL); Henderson J H (math 60% / reading 50%, grade B-, #248 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 551 students, 48% FRL); Stephenville H S (math 45% / reading 56%, grade D+, #492 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,127 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 385 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,000
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -22.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1750 Wildhorse Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-1%)	13mo	$235,000	$142	82
165 Palomino Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,768 (+5%)	21mo	$234,900	$133	68
135 Palomino Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-9%)	13mo	$235,000	$153	64
200 Sorrel Ct	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	19mo	$194,500	$124	62
383 Cedar	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,558 (-7%)	2mo	$349,900	$225	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,757
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,760
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76401

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 385
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,135/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $442	+0% $397	+5% $351	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $327	+0% $397	+5% $466	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $437	base $397	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 271 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 270 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 269 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 268 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 265 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 261 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 260 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 254 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 253 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 252 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 251 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    status Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Seeking a home near the university? Investors are welcome! This property already has several updates, including a tankless water heater, custom pantry and laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. The new owner can finish the remaining cosmetic touches to make it their own. Outside, you’ll enjoy a spacious backyard with a fenced-off area—perfect for giving your dog their own space to play. This home is financed FHA, but it has been moved, so we do have a lender that will fund it as a non-conforming loan

18. 2026-04-11
    historical 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Seeking a home near the university? Investors are welcome! This property already has several updates, including a tankless water heater, custom pantry and laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. The new owner can finish the remaining cosmetic touches to make it their own. Outside, you’ll enjoy a spacious backyard with a fenced-off area—perfect for giving your dog their own space to play. This home is financed FHA, but it has been moved, so we do have a lender that will fund it as a non-conforming loan

19. 2026-02-21
    price $159,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Seeking a home near the university? Investors are welcome! This property already has several updates, including a tankless water heater, custom pantry and laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. The new owner can finish the remaining cosmetic touches to make it their own. Outside, you’ll enjoy a spacious backyard with a fenced-off area—perfect for giving your dog their own space to play. This home is financed FHA, but it has been moved, so we do have a lender that will fund it as a non-conforming loan

20. 2025-10-23
    price $165,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Seeking a home near the university? Investors are welcome! This property already has several updates, including a tankless water heater, custom pantry and laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. The new owner can finish the remaining cosmetic touches to make it their own. Outside, you’ll enjoy a spacious backyard with a fenced-off area—perfect for giving your dog their own space to play. This home is financed FHA, but it has been moved, so we do have a lender that will fund it as a non-conforming loan

21. 2025-09-11
    listed $174,900 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Seeking a home near the university? Investors are welcome! This property already has several updates, including a tankless water heater, custom pantry and laminate wood flooring throughout most of the home. The new owner can finish the remaining cosmetic touches to make it their own. Outside, you’ll enjoy a spacious backyard with a fenced-off area—perfect for giving your dog their own space to play. This home is financed FHA, but it has been moved, so we do have a lender that will fund it as a non-conforming loan

22. 2013-09-17
    soldstatus
23. 2013-09-16
    soldstatus 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Neat & clean 4 bedroom home priced WAY below tax appraisal! Large kitchen w lots of cabinets & island w breakfast bar. Kitchen is open to living room which has a built in entertainment center. Split bedrooms, walk-in closets, & big laundry room. VERY LOW UTILITY BILLS thanks to new duct work & 5 ton AC with heat pump. This home is properly strapped down according to the owner. Sitting on over half acre! You can own this cheaper than renting it!

24. 2013-08-15
    historical 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Neat & clean 4 bedroom home priced WAY below tax appraisal! Large kitchen w lots of cabinets & island w breakfast bar. Kitchen is open to living room which has a built in entertainment center. Split bedrooms, walk-in closets, & big laundry room. VERY LOW UTILITY BILLS thanks to new duct work & 5 ton AC with heat pump. This home is properly strapped down according to the owner. Sitting on over half acre! You can own this cheaper than renting it!

25. 2013-08-07
    listed $55,000 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Neat & clean 4 bedroom home priced WAY below tax appraisal! Large kitchen w lots of cabinets & island w breakfast bar. Kitchen is open to living room which has a built in entertainment center. Split bedrooms, walk-in closets, & big laundry room. VERY LOW UTILITY BILLS thanks to new duct work & 5 ton AC with heat pump. This home is properly strapped down according to the owner. Sitting on over half acre! You can own this cheaper than renting it!

26. 2013-07-15
    historical
27. 2012-11-06
    listed $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,792/yr (+$149/mo · 157.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,135
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $2,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$545
• After-tax cash flow: $4,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephenville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841520
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,565
• Composite: 42.23/100
• National rank: #3283
• State rank: #191 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stephenville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #3840

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erath County · 31,375 people
• City population: 31,375
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,375
• Household income: $61,210
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1758.0

Population outlook (Erath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,437 people
• By 2030: 55,510 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 66,379 · +31.6%
• By 2050: 77,981 · +54.6%
• By 2075: 109,727 · +117.6%
• By 2100: 132,574 · +162.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.7% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+63.9 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+67.1 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.71%
• Current HPI: 234.4986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+162.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2013-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-09-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-08-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-08-07 Listed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2013-07-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-11-06 Listed $61,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,135 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.