3909 Los Gatos Ave · Shasta Lake, CA 96019

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,141 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1966 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Affordable Home in Shasta Lake City! 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with RV parking. Features cherry kitchen cabinets, solid-surface countertops, and an updated electrical panel. Home needs clean-out, repairs, and updating. Strong odor present. Cash only. Sold as-is. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.8% in Shasta Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#399 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.64%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,647
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3731 Olive St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+0%)	3mo	$299,000	$261	86
1535 Provo Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-2%)	6mo	$215,000	$192	74
3838 Red Bluff St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+5%)	3mo	$300,000	$251	74
4122 Main St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	3mo	$320,000	$267	72
1045 North Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-7%)	1mo	$320,000	$300	63
1011 North Blvd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-7%)	3mo	$318,780	$299	60
3700 Conchas St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-12%)	3mo	$210,000	$210	57
4239 Main St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-12%)	2mo	$292,000	$292	55
2325 Ashby Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+10%)	4mo	$412,000	$330	50
1020 Gray Pine Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	0mo	$335,000	$268	49
1995 Durrett St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-13%)	8mo	$239,000	$242	46
4524 Main St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+14%)	7mo	$304,000	$235	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $17,347
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $62,435
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96019

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $976/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4325 Fort Peck St Shasta Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	13d	1	0.47mi
1707 Grand Coulee Blvd Unit B Shasta Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,459	$1.82	13d	1	1.00mi
1840 Grand Coulee Blvd Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	44d	1	1.02mi
1833 Oregon St Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,850	$1.43	13d	1	1.11mi
13710 Pit St Shasta Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	1165	$1,475	$1.27	44d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 329-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $120,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 44 unhealthy d/yr today · 46 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$976
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $5,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shasta Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #399
• US rank: #13546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shasta Lake, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 10,350
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 10,350
• Household income: $67,446
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 260.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.66%
• Current HPI: 170.6085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Delisted — SAOR
• 2026-06-01 Listed $120,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $976 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.