1627 Swallowtail Dr · Cleburne, TX 76033

$78,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover elevated living at Villas de Mariposas, a premier resort-style community in Cleburne, proudly recognized as Texas' 2026 Best City. Located just outside the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, this exclusive neighborhood blends modern luxury, upscale amenities, and small-town charm. This beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 1,216 sq. ft. of thoughtfully planned living space with a desirable split-bedroom layout for added privacy. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into an elegant L-shaped kitchen with a spacious island, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Move-in ready, this home includes a premium appliance package featuring refrigerator, range, micr

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Shaker cabinetry
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SHAKER CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FARMHOUSE SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1627 Swallowtail Dr, Cleburne TX 76033; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $78,995

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-story (plan name: Lexi); Spec home
• Construction: Living area approximately 1216; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,625 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.14%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $28,472
• Equity at exit: $11,778

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $65,889
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,119 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76033

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 660
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $78,995

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $776	-5% $749	+0% $721	+5% $694	+10% $667
Rent	-10% $595	-5% $658	+0% $721	+5% $785	+10% $848
Rate	-1.0pp $761	-0.5pp $742	base $721	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,749
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Park Blvd Cleburne, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1456	$1,795	$1.23	2d	22	0.10mi
1304 Berry Dr Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	0.53mi
1302 Berry Dr Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	861	$1,400	$1.63	44d	1	0.54mi
1211 Country Club Rd Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	994	$1,395	$1.40	25d	1	0.58mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.87mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,400	$1.28	22d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,995 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,995 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,995 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,995 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,995 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,995 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,995 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,995 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $78,995 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,995 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,995 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,995 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,995 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $78,995 Active 1351-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $7,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,888
• After-tax cash flow: $6,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Villas de Mariposas offers a good condition with a spacious kitchen and modern amenities. It is located in a premier resort-style community with upscale amenities and small-town charm.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can improve the home's ambiance and value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can improve the home's ambiance and value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,538
• Household income: $76,292
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 927.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.75%
• Current HPI: 246.0029
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B