532 Kristy Dr · Centralia, IL 62801

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1982 7,840 sqft lot Est $125k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an investment opportunity or future home? This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with an attached garage was built in 1982 and offers a fenced backyard along with a small metal shed for extra storage. The roof was replaced in 2023. Tenant occupied, making this a great option for investors looking for immediate rental income. Conveniently located on Kristy Dr with plenty of potential! HIGHLY MOTIVATED SELLER

Key facts

• Tenant occupied
• Replaced roof
• Small metal shed

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• SMALL METAL SHED
• REPLACED ROOF
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• TENANT OCCUPIED
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage owned); Concrete driveway; 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Currently leased
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built approximately 41–50 years ago
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; School bus service available; Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 109

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eating area / table space
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Laminate flooring in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Electric dryer hookup; Washer/dryer space in kitchen area (in kitchen)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($229/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $139k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $124,318 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 Kristy Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	2mo	$125,000	$112	97
525 Osage Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,102 (-2%)	8mo	$140,000	$127	80
43 Ridge Rd	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,209 (+8%)	2mo	$77,000	$64	67
508 Marquis Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-2%)	5mo	$143,000	$131	64
5 Ronnie	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,212 (+8%)	6mo	$158,000	$130	63
23 Park Ln	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (-8%)	2mo	$135,000	$132	63
1100 E 2nd St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	9mo	$58,000	$52	60
19 Park Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,011 (-10%)	12mo	$112,000	$111	60
409 S Pleasant Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	957 (-15%)	1mo	$97,500	$102	54
503 Airport Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-6%)	3mo	$168,000	$159	54
1014 E Broadway St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,030 (-8%)	6mo	$97,900	$95	48
1206 E 2nd St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	11mo	$98,500	$103	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,287
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,887
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,114/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $58	+0% $19	+5% $-20	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-30	+0% $19	+5% $68	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $54	base $19	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $139,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-27
    listed $139,000 Active
12. 2025-03-25
    listed $129,900 Active
13. 2025-03-25
    historical
14. 2024-10-08
    listed $129,900 Active
15. 2024-08-17
    historical
16. 2023-08-30
    listed $129,900 Active
17. 2023-07-22
    historical
18. 2023-03-25
    listed $99,900 Active
19. 2021-08-06
    historical
20. 2021-08-06
    historical
21. 2021-08-06
    historical
22. 2015-02-13
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 2014-05-15
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,635 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$521/yr (+$43/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,114
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$506
• After-tax cash flow: $735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+98.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $139,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-08 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-17 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-30 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-22 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-25 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,114 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.