Harrisburg Plan · Palmetto, FL 34221

$327,840

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Family room
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $327,840 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $405,832.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $328k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-870 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,332 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.48%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,832
• List price: $327,840
• Delta: -19.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6018 Blue Paloma	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,817 (0%)	2mo	$326,140	$179	77
11328 Trivio Ter	0.77mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+0%)	4mo	$430,000	$235	54
12809 Dockyard Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-3%)	5mo	$399,000	$226	53
5018 Caserta Ct	1.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (+6%)	2mo	$495,000	$257	48
11507 Viani Ter	0.81mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,886 (+4%)	10mo	$440,000	$233	45
5828 Clairwood Ct	1.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (+12%)	5mo	$610,000	$301	36
11816 71st Ave E	0.77mi	5/4.0 (+1)	1,680 (-8%)	6mo	$394,500	$235	35
7557 116th St E	1.09mi	4/3.0	2,084 (+15%)	2mo	$385,995	$185	35
12719 Dockyard Trl	0.76mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+13%)	9mo	$460,000	$224	31
11429 Casella Pl	0.68mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,138 (+18%)	5mo	$745,000	$348	28
5807 Laurelcrest Gln	0.96mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (-20%)	9mo	$337,999	$232	28
7506 117th Lane East	0.94mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,156 (+19%)	8mo	$384,190	$178	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-128,502
• Equity at exit: $60,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.86×
• Total profit: $-211,597
• Equity at exit: $35,089

Cash invested: $113,633 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 56.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $331,700 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 17 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +32.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,128
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$507 /mo · $6,087/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,634

Max offer price $279,978

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-589	-5% $-730	+0% $-870	+5% $-1,010	+10% $-1,150
Rent	-10% $-1,070	-5% $-970	+0% $-870	+5% $-770	+10% $-670
Rate	-1.0pp $-665	-0.5pp $-767	base $-870	+0.5pp $-975	+1.0pp $-1,082

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,458
• Closing costs: $12,175
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	65d	1	0.38mi
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	61d	1	0.38mi
5924 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	69d	1	0.41mi
11832 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,025	$1.29	47d	1	0.43mi
11820 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,100	$1.52	65d	1	0.44mi
6011 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,000	$1.45	52d	1	0.46mi
11787 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	70d	1	0.51mi
11779 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,100	$1.51	41d	1	0.51mi
11720 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	73d	1	0.53mi
11731 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,100	$1.51	35d	1	0.54mi
11905 71st Pl E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2197	$2,850	$1.30	27d	1	0.69mi
11757 71st Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$2,699	$1.24	65d	1	0.79mi
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	73d	1	0.81mi
11331 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,090	$1.25	61d	1	0.83mi
11332 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	73d	1	0.84mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	73d	1	0.87mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	73d	1	0.90mi
5912 Laurelcrest Gln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,650	$1.39	35d	1	0.97mi
5312 Caserta Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2275	$4,500	$1.98	73d	1	0.98mi
7518 117th Ln E Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2156	$3,100	$1.44	73d	1	0.98mi
11075 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,100	$1.26	32d	1	0.99mi
6219 Springmont Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2574	$3,023	$1.17	33d	1	1.22mi
6417 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,995	$1.45	17d	1	1.27mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	73d	1	1.28mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $320,540

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Harrisburg)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,817

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Harrisburg) - new construction

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $327,840 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $327,840 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $327,340 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $327,340 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $327,340 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $327,340 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $327,340 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $327,340 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $327,340 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $327,340 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $327,340 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $327,340 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $326,640 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $326,540 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $325,440 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $325,440 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    price $325,340 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $323,240 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $323,240 Active 80 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    price $323,240 Active 79 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $323,140 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $323,040 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $323,040 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $312,440 Active 75 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    price $312,440 Active 74 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $312,340 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $312,340 Active 73 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $312,340 Active 71 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $312,340 Active 70 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $312,340 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $312,340 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    price $312,340 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $312,140 Active 67 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $312,140 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $312,140 Active 65 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $311,040 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    pricedays on market $311,040 Active 62 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $310,940 Active 60 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $310,940 Active 59 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $310,940 Active 56 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $310,940 Active 55 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $310,940 Active 54 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $310,840 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $310,840 Active 51 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $310,840 Active 50 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $310,840 Active 48 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $310,840 Active 47 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $310,840 Active 46 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,640 Active 45 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,640 Active 41 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,733
• − Property taxes: −$6,087
• − Insurance: −$2,827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,432
• − Management: −$2,432
• − Depreciation: −$11,806
• Taxable loss: −$17,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,085–$27,255 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior shutters and kitchen fixtures would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal and adds a fresh look ↑
• Both Replace kitchen faucet — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $320,540

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Harrisburg)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,817

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Harrisburg) - new construction