515 Grand Ave · Rochester, NY 14609

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 3,334 sqft lot $115/sqft · 19% above area Est $172k · 19% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home blends classic character with thoughtful, energy-efficient upgrades—including GEOTHERMAL heating & cooling designed to keep utility costs impressively low & providing year-round comfort. With major efficiency improvements already completed, this 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect combination of historic charm, smart living, & long-term value. This spacious property offers flexibility & comfort including a renovated upstairs bathroom (2025) with excellent water pressure & storage. When you step inside, you’ll appreciate the grand entryway, setting the tone for the home’s impressive scale & charm. High ceilings &

Key facts

• Insulation upgrades
• Geothermal cooling
• Geothermal heating

Tags

• GEOTHERMAL HEATING
• GEOTHERMAL COOLING
• RENOVATED UPSTAIRS BATHROOM
• SMART WATER SHUT-OFF SYSTEM
• FULL WINDOW REPLACEMENT
• INSULATION UPGRADES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is rectangular and near public transit (33 x 100)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing home; Resale condition; City street frontage
• Construction: Cedar siding; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Blown-in insulation; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7; Basement present
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Geothermal heating; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.9% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $205k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,324 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,335
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 18.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
368 Parsells	0.14mi	4/1.5	1,787 (+0%)	4mo	$80,000	$45	88
77 Sidney St	0.27mi	4/1.5	1,702 (-5%)	4mo	$149,900	$88	75
487 Parsells Ave	0.10mi	4/1.5	1,973 (+10%)	2mo	$180,000	$91	74
275 Parsells Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-7%)	3mo	$207,000	$125	70
52 Arch St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,593 (-11%)	4mo	$244,500	$153	67
102 Ellison St	0.56mi	4/1.0	1,782 (-0%)	4mo	$195,000	$109	66
381 Parsells Ave	0.11mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (-14%)	1mo	$110,000	$72	65
322 Grand Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-13%)	2mo	$139,200	$90	64
442 Hayward Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (-2%)	4mo	$189,900	$109	59
106 Ohio St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-10%)	2mo	$218,000	$136	54
320 Rosewood Ter	0.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,519 (-15%)	4mo	$220,000	$145	51
497 Rocket St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-12%)	3mo	$250,000	$158	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,632
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $55,757
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14609

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,219/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1159 Culver Rd Unit A2 UP Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1313	$1,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.23mi
420 Rosewood Ter Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1246	$1,300	$1.04	3d	1	0.30mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	3d	1	0.34mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	44d	1	0.45mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	21d	1	0.45mi
1079 Garson Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1273	$2,100	$1.65	10d	1	0.50mi
52 Frances St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,595	$1.27	44d	1	0.81mi
1786 Clifford Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2404	$1,850	$0.77	3d	1	0.83mi
1788 Clifford Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2404	$1,850	$0.77	3d	1	0.83mi
147 5th St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1289	$1,950	$1.51	21d	1	0.91mi
176 Merwin Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.00mi
47 Priscilla St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1250	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	1.00mi
733 University Ave #3 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	1.07mi
1600 East Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	944	$2,875	$3.04	3d	1	1.23mi
1 Champeney Ter Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1936	$1,650	$0.85	14d	1	1.26mi
36 Morningside Park Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1446	$2,400	$1.66	3d	1	1.37mi
214 Culver Rd Apt 2 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	14d	1	1.38mi
256 Oxford St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2050	$3,000	$1.46	14d	1	1.39mi
57 Calumet St Rochester, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$2,250	$0.90	14d	1	1.40mi
207 Lux St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1728	$2,150	$1.24	10d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $205,000 Active 2318-char remark
2. 2020-01-03
   soldstatus $80,000
3. 2003-09-30
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,219 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,123/yr (+$94/mo · 92.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,219
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$146
• After-tax cash flow: $2,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,274
• Household income: $64,603
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2183.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.57%
• Current HPI: 328.7053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.89%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+720.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $205,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,219 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.