115 Elizabeth Ln · Blossom, TX 75416

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 877 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1994 7,841 sqft lot $103/sqft · 25% below area Est $120k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1.5 bath investment property located near Blossom Elementary. Subject to receivership terms: Terms per court order: This is a Receivership with a 10-day period to accept or reject offer to be sold AS IS and close within 30 days of acceptance. Buyer must provide proof of funds of prequalification letter with offer.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($955 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.4% in Blossom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,116 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prairiland ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #167 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blossom El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 418 students, 55% FRL); Prairiland J H (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 248 students, 57% FRL); Prairiland H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 292 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,285
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -25.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Elizabeth Ln	0.10mi	3/1.5	977 (+11%)	3mo	$109,900	$112	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $33,249
• Equity at exit: $57,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $92,676
• Equity at exit: $105,147

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75416

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,741/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $125	+0% $100	+5% $74	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $62	+0% $100	+5% $137	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $122	base $100	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5 bath investment property located near Blossom Elementary. Subject to receivership terms: Terms per court order: This is a Receivership with a 10-day period to accept or reject offer to be sold AS IS and close within 30 days of acceptance. Buyer must provide proof of funds of prequalification letter with offer.

2. 2026-03-13
   status Active 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5 bath investment property located near Blossom Elementary. Subject to receivership terms: Terms per court order: This is a Receivership with a 10-day period to accept or reject offer to be sold AS IS and close within 30 days of acceptance. Buyer must provide proof of funds of prequalification letter with offer.

3. 2026-01-06
   listed $90,000 Active 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5 bath investment property located near Blossom Elementary. Subject to receivership terms: Terms per court order: This is a Receivership with a 10-day period to accept or reject offer to be sold AS IS and close within 30 days of acceptance. Buyer must provide proof of funds of prequalification letter with offer.

4. 2014-05-30
   soldstatus
5. 2005-01-12
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,741 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,741 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,741
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$55
• After-tax cash flow: $1,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prairiland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835740
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,652
• Composite: 43.44/100
• National rank: #3010
• State rank: #167 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blossom

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1116
• US rank: #19760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blossom, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.17%
• Current HPI: 202.3527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2014-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,741 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.