46 Lincoln Ave · Trenton, NJ 08609

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 1,891 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity. Part of a 6-property portfolio with rental income of $5275 (includes previous rental income of 3 vacant property locations. Portfolio taxes $8735. Portfolio list price $295,000

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Martin Luther King Middle School (568 students, 57% FRL); Trenton Central High School - Main Campus (math 2% / reading 10%, grade F, #396 of 399 statewide, top 99%, 2,255 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 80% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $85k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.16%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,168
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 N Montgomery St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,401 (+4%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	54
18 Dexter St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-11%)	1mo	$139,000	$116	50
42 E Paul Ave	0.68mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,443 (+7%)	11mo	$275,000	$191	40
9 Borden Way	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,485 (+10%)	19mo	$255,000	$172	32
508 Tyler St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,516 (+13%)	23mo	$240,000	$158	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $57,192
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $141,400
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08609

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,291/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $1,113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,161	-5% $1,137	+0% $1,113	+5% $1,089	+10% $1,065
Rent	-10% $934	-5% $1,023	+0% $1,113	+5% $1,202	+10% $1,291
Rate	-1.0pp $1,155	-0.5pp $1,134	base $1,113	+0.5pp $1,091	+1.0pp $1,068

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.08mi
34 Southard St #2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1808	$2,150	$1.19	22d	1	0.21mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	0.35mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	22d	1	0.37mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	22d	1	0.47mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	22d	1	0.51mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	22d	1	0.54mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	14d	2	0.56mi
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	22d	1	0.58mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	22d	1	0.62mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	0.66mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	22d	1	0.73mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	0.78mi
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	0.79mi
21 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.87mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	22d	1	0.88mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	14d	4	0.89mi
8 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,900	$1.51	22d	1	0.90mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	0.91mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	14d	1	0.91mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	0.93mi
176 Division St Apt 106 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,700	$1.74	22d	1	0.96mi
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	0.99mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	22d	1	1.05mi
27 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	22d	1	1.06mi
311 Calhoun St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1516	$2,400	$1.58	44d	1	1.08mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	22d	1	1.09mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	22d	1	1.12mi
203 Genesee St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	1.16mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 1 Hamilton Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	14d	1	1.18mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 2 Hamilton Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,850	$2.04	14d	1	1.18mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	22d	1	1.21mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	14d	1	1.23mi
186 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,400	$2.26	5d	1	1.27mi
307 Spring St Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$2,000	$1.19	22d	1	1.29mi
307 Spring St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$1,750	$1.04	22d	1	1.29mi
307 Spring St Unit 3 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$1,800	$1.07	22d	1	1.29mi
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	14d	1	1.29mi
311 Spring St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	14d	1	1.29mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	22d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-11-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-31
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-10-14
   listed $84,900 Active
4. 2025-10-14
   historical $84,900
5. 2007-11-05
   soldstatus $25,000 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   Investment opportunity. Part of a 6-property portfolio with rental income of $5275 (includes previous rental income of 3 vacant property locations. Portfolio taxes $8735. Portfolio list price $295,000

6. 2007-09-17
   historical 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   Investment opportunity. Part of a 6-property portfolio with rental income of $5275 (includes previous rental income of 3 vacant property locations. Portfolio taxes $8735. Portfolio list price $295,000

7. 2007-08-16
   listed $25,000 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   Investment opportunity. Part of a 6-property portfolio with rental income of $5275 (includes previous rental income of 3 vacant property locations. Portfolio taxes $8735. Portfolio list price $295,000

8. 2007-03-27
   historical
9. 2007-01-07
   listed $59,000
10. 2006-12-28
    historical
11. 2006-09-01
    listed $69,900
12. 2005-07-10
    historical
13. 2005-02-10
    listed $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$2,291
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $12,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,078
• After-tax cash flow: $10,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 15,938
• Household income: $68,238
• Rent vs Own: 70.2% rent · 29.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Black 43% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 11%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Swiss 2% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.12%
• Current HPI: 275.8566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-31 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-14 Coming Soon $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-11-05 Sold (MLS) $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-09-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-08-16 Listed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-03-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-07 Listed $59,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-09-01 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-07-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-02-10 Listed $66,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,291 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.