1615 12th · St. Joseph, MO 64503

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1907 10,400 sqft lot $73/sqft · 32% below area Est $110k · 32% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath ranch on large corner lot offers newer roof and windows, newer flooring, fresh coat of paint. You will love this large 130x80 lot with shed for additional storage.

Key facts

• Fresh coat of paint
• Newer flooring
• Large corner lot

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER FLOORING
• FRESH COAT OF PAINT
• SHED FOR ADDITIONAL STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($941 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.69%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,636
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -31.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1321 S 17th St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+2%)	1mo	$55,000	$53	80
1501 Pacific St	0.31mi	2/1.0	936 (-8%)	2mo	$79,900	$85	70
1607 S 14th St	0.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,134 (+11%)	1mo	$133,900	$118	69
1816 S 20th St	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,020 (-0%)	8mo	$165,000	$162	65
1018 S 20th St	0.62mi	2/1.0	989 (-3%)	3mo	$35,000	$35	63
1409 Pacific St	0.30mi	2/1.0	896 (-12%)	6mo	$112,067	$125	60
2101 Penn St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (-3%)	2mo	$134,900	$137	58
1336 S 17th St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (+13%)	2mo	$144,900	$125	57
2340 S 13th St	0.54mi	2/1.0	924 (-10%)	8mo	$134,900	$146	52
832 S 19th St	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	6mo	$79,900	$73	51
2419 S 10th St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (-7%)	9mo	$147,000	$155	48
2403 S 16th St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	934 (-9%)	8mo	$154,000	$165	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $6,424
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $29,439
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64503

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $317/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $313	+0% $292	+5% $271	+10% $250
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $255	+0% $292	+5% $329	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $311	base $292	+0.5pp $273	+1.0pp $253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 S 11th St Apt 605 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1141	$940	$0.82	44d	1	0.23mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 22 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	866	$998	$1.15	44d	1	0.23mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 603 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1176	$910	$0.77	44d	1	0.23mi
2219 S 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	0.42mi
1106 Olive St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	44d	1	0.48mi
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	44d	1	0.77mi
303 S 13th St St Joseph, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	0.89mi
201 S 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	44d	1	0.94mi
1015 Faraon St St Joseph, MO	1.0	1.0	743	$820	$1.10	44d	1	1.19mi
516 N 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	44d	1	1.31mi
2408 Jules St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	1.33mi
809 Hall St Unit B St Joseph, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	44d	1	1.45mi
425 N 25th St St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $75,000 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath ranch on large corner lot offers newer roof and windows, newer flooring, fresh coat of paint. You will love this large 130x80 lot with shed for additional storage.

17. 2026-04-16
    listed $79,000 Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath ranch on large corner lot offers newer roof and windows, newer flooring, fresh coat of paint. You will love this large 130x80 lot with shed for additional storage.

18. 2002-12-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $317 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 129.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$317
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$903
• − Management: −$903
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$578
• After-tax cash flow: $2,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 11,921

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.03%
• Current HPI: 185.3921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $79,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $317 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.