3551 Duncaster Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$218,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1980 5,706 sqft lot $135/sqft · 17% below area Est $264k · 17% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Patio home with a huge kitchen and no back neighbors. Great starter home. Great location to schools and shopping areas.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Bright open entry
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• QUAIL VALLEY COMMUNITY
• BRIGHT OPEN ENTRY
• SPACIOUS SUNLIT KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Quail Valley community association with an annual fee of $470

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (13x13); Second-level bedroom (12x11); Second-level bedroom (10x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Seller provided disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quail Valley El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 564 students, 64% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 35% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,030
• List price: $218,990
• Delta: -14.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3559 Duncaster Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+0%)	5mo	$269,999	$166	90
3615 Palm Grove Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,575 (-3%)	9mo	$239,900	$152	78
3603 Duncaster Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,636 (+1%)	23mo	$249,900	$153	76
3614 Palm Grove Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,476 (-9%)	14mo	$220,000	$149	63
3315 Golden Tee Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+10%)	2mo	$175,000	$98	61
3527 Palm Grove Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-11%)	16mo	$260,000	$179	60
3663 Duncaster Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,768 (+9%)	19mo	$265,000	$150	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,004
• Equity at exit: $45,929

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-23,576
• Equity at exit: $42,541

Cash invested: $61,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,129/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,160

Max offer price $218,990

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,748
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3611 Duncaster Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	19d	1	0.08mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	12d	1	0.51mi
4340 Lake Walk Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,600	$1.24	22d	1	0.77mi
2608 Grand Plantation Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	12d	1	0.78mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	20d	1	0.95mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	0.95mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	24d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,990 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,990 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,990 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $218,990 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $226,990 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $226,990 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $226,990 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $226,990 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $226,990 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $226,990 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $226,990 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-04-15
    price $226,990 849-char remark
14. 2026-03-26
    listed $235,000 Active 849-char remark
15. 2015-08-17
    historical 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Charming Patio home with a huge kitchen and no back neighbors. Great starter home. Great location to schools and shopping areas.

16. 2015-08-14
    soldstatus
17. 2015-08-11
    soldstatus Sold 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Charming Patio home with a huge kitchen and no back neighbors. Great starter home. Great location to schools and shopping areas.

18. 2015-08-05
    status Pending, Continue to Show 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Charming Patio home with a huge kitchen and no back neighbors. Great starter home. Great location to schools and shopping areas.

19. 2015-07-31
    status Pending 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Charming Patio home with a huge kitchen and no back neighbors. Great starter home. Great location to schools and shopping areas.

20. 2015-07-26
    listed $110,000 Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Charming Patio home with a huge kitchen and no back neighbors. Great starter home. Great location to schools and shopping areas.

21. 2003-10-17
    historical
22. 2003-07-31
    listed $110,990
23. 2000-11-30
    soldstatus
24. 1996-12-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,129 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,129 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$5,129
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,219
• − Management: −$2,219
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$2,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$488
• After-tax cash flow: $1,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+97.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $218,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $226,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2015-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-08-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-07-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-07-26 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-07-31 Listed $110,990 HARMLS
• 2000-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,129 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.