809 203rd St · Pasadena, MD 21122

$205,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1950 7,500 sqft lot $169/sqft · 43% below area Est $360k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTMENT SPECIAL IN GREEN HAVEN! House sits on a 7,500 sq ft (. 17 acre) parcel. 1,200+ sq ft and 3 levels throughout with addition off the top rear of the house. Major renovation required, or potential teardown. Bring your ideas and plans to make it your very own! Estate Sale and being sold strictly as-is. Sale must include the 5,000 sq ft (. 11 acre) lot next door at 811 203rd St for +$125,000. See MLS # MDAA2139628

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 94 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.1% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#100 in MD, #3,887 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 253 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,262
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -43.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
776 203rd St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (-3%)	5mo	$355,000	$301	79
727 213th St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,260 (+4%)	6mo	$320,000	$254	66
7759 Glen Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,339 (+10%)	1mo	$371,500	$277	65
762 208th St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-11%)	2mo	$359,900	$333	64
7707 Leigh Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,176 (-3%)	8mo	$440,000	$374	61
969 Tidewater Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,247 (+3%)	7mo	$449,900	$361	60
722 214th St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (+4%)	6mo	$325,000	$258	59
723 207th St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-14%)	1mo	$399,999	$385	58
7789 Outing Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,106 (-9%)	9mo	$410,000	$371	56
969 10th St	0.47mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,096 (-10%)	1mo	$369,900	$338	48
7723 W Shore Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,372 (+13%)	8mo	$425,000	$310	47
7693 Oak Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	7mo	$352,225	$314	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,068
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $16,050
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21122

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,168/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $624	-5% $565	+0% $507	+5% $449	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $323	-5% $415	+0% $507	+5% $600	+10% $692
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $560	base $507	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
765 202nd St Pasadena, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	15d	1	0.10mi
932 12th St Pasadena, MD	3.0	2.5	1100	$2,750	$2.50	45d	1	0.48mi
7663 Cedar Dr Pasadena, MD	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	19d	1	0.68mi
7707 Warsaw Ave Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.0	924	$2,400	$2.60	12d	1	0.69mi
212 Mulberry Ridge Ct Pasadena, MD	3.0	3.5	1335	$2,495	$1.87	0d	1	0.78mi
8638 Gambier Harbour Pasadena, MD	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,700	$1.93	0d	1	1.25mi
3630 Saltwood Gln Pasadena, MD	2.0	2.0	960	$2,339	$2.44	4d	1	1.26mi
959 Mount Desert Harbour Pasadena, MD	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	25d	1	1.29mi
8036 Abbey Ct Unit J Pasadena, MD	2.0	1.0	924	$1,850	$2.00	12d	1	1.35mi
8125 Gray Stone Ln Pasadena, MD	3.0	3.5	1232	$2,700	$2.19	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $230,000 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    INVESTMENT SPECIAL IN GREEN HAVEN! House sits on a 7,500 sq ft (. 17 acre) parcel. 1,200+ sq ft and 3 levels throughout with addition off the top rear of the house. Major renovation required, or potential teardown. Bring your ideas and plans to make it your very own! Estate Sale and being sold strictly as-is. Sale must include the 5,000 sq ft (. 11 acre) lot next door at 811 203rd St for +$125,000. See MLS # MDAA2139628

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,168 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,168
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $2,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$707
• After-tax cash flow: $5,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 61,566
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 61,566
• Household income: $127,587
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 791.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -401.00%
• Current HPI: 283.1566
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.76%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,168 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.