Ashford Plan · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$199,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,343 sqft · Townhouse · 193 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome features a smart layout designed to maximize space. On the first floor is an open-plan layout connecting a multifunctional kitchen, lovely dining area and welcoming Great Room, which features sliding glass doors to a patio that's perfect for outdoor relaxation. Ideally situated upstairs are two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite complete with a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Close to shops
• New townhomes

Tags

• NEW TOWNHOMES
• LOW HOA FEES
• CLOSE TO SHOPS
• CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: North Fort Myers, FL 33917
• Financial info: List price $199,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Ashford)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,343

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Ashford; New construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $199,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,972.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,972
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17523 Paradiso Way	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,347 (+0%)	1mo	$210,000	$156	80
17499 Monte Isola Way	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,405 (+5%)	1mo	$210,000	$149	72
4255 Cirella Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,347 (+0%)	22mo	$276,298	$205	71
4252 Cirella Ct	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,347 (+0%)	20mo	$275,000	$204	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-62,898
• Equity at exit: $40,850

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-80,620
• Equity at exit: $23,688

Cash invested: $76,712 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 841
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,397

Max offer price $233,587

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,493
• Closing costs: $8,219
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17669 Paradiso Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,999	$1.29	3d	1	0.20mi
17669 Paradiso Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,999	$1.29	23d	1	0.20mi
17392 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.5	1871	$2,299	$1.23	23d	1	0.20mi
4216 Villa Rapallo Way North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,000	$1.10	2d	1	0.23mi
4275 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	23d	1	0.24mi
4106 Granita Ct North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.5	1812	$2,300	$1.27	23d	1	0.24mi
4232 Villa Rapallo Way North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$1,900	$1.05	23d	1	0.25mi
17400 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,875	$1.29	23d	1	0.25mi
4106 Lattuca Ln North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,200	$1.17	23d	1	0.29mi
4264 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1442	$2,000	$1.39	11d	1	0.30mi
4276 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	23d	1	0.32mi
4208 Caterina Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	14d	1	0.34mi
4241 Caterina Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,900	$1.24	16d	1	0.35mi
4228 Caterina Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,850	$1.09	11d	1	0.36mi
4106 San Felice Ln North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,400	$1.28	23d	1	0.39mi
17225 Cantu Ct North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	0.41mi
17489 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	14d	1	0.43mi
17499 Monte Isola Way Unit 17499 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$1,800	$1.28	13d	1	0.44mi
17244 Cantu Ct North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,200	$1.21	14d	1	0.46mi
17920 Antherium Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1693	$2,400	$1.42	23d	1	0.48mi
535 Zebra Dr #535 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,499	$1.11	14d	1	0.48mi
574 Leopard Ln #574 North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,599	$1.10	13d	1	0.58mi
3358 Sabal Springs Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,200	$1.36	23d	1	0.76mi
266 Mongoose Ln #266 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,499	$1.09	3d	1	0.84mi
4120 Pine Drop Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$1,895	$1.98	23d	1	1.01mi
2774 Wedgewood Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	23d	1	1.09mi
16363 Teresa Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	1.28mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	23d	1	1.38mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	16d	1	1.38mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,498	$1.02	23d	2	1.39mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1534	$1,575	$1.03	2d	3	1.39mi
3957 Pomodoro Cir #301 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	16d	1	1.40mi
2913 Tuscan Dr #102 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,450	$0.99	23d	1	1.42mi
3968 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	14d	1	1.42mi
3953 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,624	$1.56	14d	9	1.44mi
2909 Tuscan Dr Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	23d	2	1.44mi
2904 Tuscan Dr #303 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,450	$0.99	23d	1	1.45mi
2376 Case Ln Unit A North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,800	$1.25	23d	1	1.48mi
3944 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	23d	1	1.48mi
3187 Cozumel Ct Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,990 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,347
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$7,970
• Taxable loss: −$8,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,968
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B