1157 S Hillcrest Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1970 Poor condition 0.46 ac lot $89/sqft · 45% below area Est $153k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for investors with a current tenant already in place. Property features a large fenced backyard and is being sold as-is with strong potential.

Key facts

• Strong potential
• Fenced backyard
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• STRONG POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax: $869.86

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: 960 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.46-acre lot; Subdivision: Greene-Not in List

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: One full bathroom

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $85,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$153,345) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunshine Elem. (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 351 students, 75% FRL); Parkview High (math 11% / reading 40%, grade F, #433 of 521 statewide, top 83%, 1,234 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 46% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 39% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Springfield R-XII average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.78%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,345
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -44.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1164 S Hillcrest Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$145,000	$151	95
1141 S Hillcrest Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$165,000	$172	95
2830 W State St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	970 (+1%)	4mo	$164,900	$170	62
3145 W Lombard St	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,032 (+8%)	7mo	$169,900	$165	62
2939 W Grand St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	1mo	$115,000	$137	62
1325 S Brite Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (+6%)	4mo	$79,000	$78	60
3242 W Page St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-5%)	8mo	$117,000	$128	57
2731 W State St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (+3%)	7mo	$150,000	$152	52
2919 W Page St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+14%)	2mo	$176,500	$161	51
2616 W Page St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-5%)	9mo	$154,000	$169	51
3121 W Harrison St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,052 (+10%)	1mo	$187,500	$178	47
2611 W Madison St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	9mo	$139,900	$167	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $8,304
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $42,021
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $342	+0% $313	+5% $284	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $223	-5% $268	+0% $313	+5% $358	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $335	base $313	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$945	$0.94	14d	1	0.55mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$950	$0.94	24d	1	0.57mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	45d	1	0.82mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	22d	1	0.95mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	22d	1	0.96mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	14d	1	0.97mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	45d	1	1.01mi
1625 S Marion Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,321	$1.47	14d	5	1.07mi
1634 S Marion Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,662	$1.97	14d	23	1.20mi
3861 W University St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	9	1.37mi
1911 W Elm St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$875	$1.51	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 160-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $85,000 Active 160-char remark
3. 2020-07-12
   listed $77,800
4. 2017-07-12
   listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $3,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including landscaping, debris removal, and structural inspections. Significant improvements in curb appeal and safety can be achieved with initial work.

Repairs flagged

• Major overgrown vegetation — Significant overgrowth suggests potential structural issues
• Major debris — Large debris pile indicates potential structural issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and debris removal — Improves curb appeal and safety
• Both HVAC inspection and cleaning — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency
• Both painting and interior cleaning — Enhances appearance and cleanliness
• Both roof inspection — Prevents potential leaks and structural damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
overgrown vegetation · Significant overgrowth suggests potential structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
debris · Large debris pile indicates potential structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and debris removal — Improves curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both HVAC inspection and cleaning — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both painting and interior cleaning — Enhances appearance and cleanliness ↑
• Both roof inspection — Prevents potential leaks and structural damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+31.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-14 Listed $85,000 SOMO
• 2020-07-12 Listed $77,800 SOMO
• 2017-07-12 Listed $64,900 SOMO