3116 Mary Ave · Baltimore, MD 21214

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1939 1,148 sqft lot Est $201k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1939

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (and public septic listed); Hot water: electric and natural gas
• Home design: Semi-detached structure; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior; Foundation: block and brick/mortar
• Exterior features: Property is within city limits (Baltimore City)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Improved basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $140k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.25%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2913 Fleetwood Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,178 (+3%)	0mo	$95,000	$81	66
3723 Bayonne Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+4%)	0mo	$230,000	$192	64
3710 Raspe Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+0%)	10mo	$175,000	$152	60
3828 Bayonne Ave	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,152 (+0%)	5mo	$233,000	$202	52
3706 Springwood Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,024 (-11%)	0mo	$155,000	$151	50
5709 Walther Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-11%)	11mo	$218,000	$213	45
5947 Lillyan Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+12%)	11mo	$195,000	$152	40
5903 Lillyan Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-11%)	7mo	$200,000	$195	40
3707 Raspe Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-11%)	13mo	$250,000	$244	37
5945 Lillyan Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,284 (+12%)	12mo	$225,000	$175	36
5929 Lillyan Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,280 (+12%)	13mo	$210,000	$164	32
3209 Northway Dr	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (+12%)	10mo	$195,000	$152	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,868
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $35,580
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21214

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,812/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $440	+0% $400	+5% $361	+10% $321
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $329	+0% $400	+5% $472	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $436	base $400	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3014 Hamilton Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,575	$1.85	24d	1	0.34mi
3033 Hamilton Ave Unit 1R Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	5d	1	0.36mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.41mi
2805 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	44d	1	0.46mi
3021 Echodale Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$999	$1.33	44d	1	0.52mi
2804 Christopher Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	24d	1	0.52mi
2604 Hamilton Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	44d	1	0.53mi
5600 Birchwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	44d	1	0.58mi
6410 Walther Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,995	$1.67	44d	7	0.75mi
2900 Ailsa Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	0.77mi
3010 Woodring Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	44d	1	0.78mi
6212 Laurelton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,325	$1.38	44d	1	0.79mi
5906 Benton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	780	$1,350	$1.73	44d	1	0.80mi
3158 Woodring Ave Parkville, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,950	$1.30	24d	1	0.81mi
5424 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	44d	1	0.84mi
6612 Birchwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,300	$2.05	20d	1	0.85mi
2807 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1190	$2,500	$2.10	15d	1	0.87mi
4111 Century Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$2,500	$1.75	44d	1	0.91mi
3802 Biddison Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1443	$2,024	$1.40	12d	1	0.93mi
3309 Southern Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	13d	1	0.93mi
5632 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,100	$1.67	24d	1	0.95mi
2423 Wellbridge Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$1,325	$1.96	21d	1	1.01mi
2106 Cloville Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,700	$1.57	44d	1	1.02mi
6502 McClean Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,537	$1.66	44d	1	1.06mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	969	$1,490	$1.54	5d	1	1.07mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	937	$1,550	$1.65	5d	1	1.07mi
4308 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1110	$1,416	$1.28	24d	1	1.09mi
4902 Gilray Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	776	$2,400	$3.09	24d	1	1.11mi
4007 Biddison Ln Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,279	$1.28	18d	1	1.11mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	44d	1	1.16mi
6502 McClean Blvd Unit 2211-B3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	22d	1	1.16mi
2077 Woodbourne Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	830	$1,419	$1.71	2d	5	1.20mi
1806 Ramblewood Rd Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	903	$1,847	$2.05	44d	1	1.21mi
4104 Parkwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	24d	1	1.23mi
3108 Glendale Ave Parkville, MD	3.0	3.0	1224	$2,550	$2.08	24d	1	1.25mi
1908 E Belvedere Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,950	$1.37	20d	1	1.33mi
1900 Ramblewood Rd Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	903	$1,847	$2.05	44d	1	1.34mi
6624 Pioneer Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	706	$1,647	$2.33	44d	1	1.34mi
1726 E Belvedere Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,895	$1.66	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-04
   listed $140,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,812 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,812 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,812
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $4,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 21,092
• Household income: $86,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 33% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.52%
• Current HPI: 310.5637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+366.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,812 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.